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Former President Donald Trump lashed out over a new poll that indicates his 2024 GOP presidential primary challenger, Nikki Haley, is making huge strides in New Hampshire.
An American Research Group poll released on Friday shows Trump leading the GOP field in the Granite State with 33 percent of the vote. However, Haley is in a close second place at 29 percent, which places her in a statistical tie with the former president, as the poll's margin of error is 4 percent.
Within hours of the poll's release, Trump responded with a furious all-caps post to Truth Social. The ex-president referred to Haley as a "birdbrain," denounced Fox News, and claimed that the survey was "fake" before promising to share a "real poll" that showed him with a bigger lead.
"FAKE NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL WAS RELEASED ON BIRDBRAIN," Trump wrote. "JUST ANOTHER SCAM! RATINGS CHALLENGED FOXNEWS WILL PLAY IT TO THE HILT. SUNUNU NOW ONE OF THE LEAST POPULAR GOVERNORS IN U.S. REAL POLL TO FOLLOW"
Minutes later, Trump shared a University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion poll that showed him leading Haley by a far more comfortable 30 points earlier this month.
Newsweek reached out to the Haley campaign via email for comment on Friday.
Political science professor Grant Reeher, the director of Syracuse University's Campbell Public Affairs Institute, told Newsweek that Trump's response indicates that "he is very concerned about what this poll suggests."
"This response seems a bit desperate, even for the former president," Reeher said. "Momentum is key, and no candidate wants to acknowledge the possibility that a rival is gaining ground, so I can understand the general impulse to reject the findings. But this sounds like an indiscriminate lashing out."
Reeher went on to suggest that the new poll challenges "the supposed inevitability" of Trump's nomination, which he said was one of the "main themes" of the former president's 2024 campaign.
"A lot of the tacit support and the silence the former president enjoys from political activists within his own party comes out of the fear of political fallout and revenge should they criticize," said Reeher.
"If there is a perceived weakness in his candidacy, this incentive drops, and it can drop very quickly," he added. "Trump and his advisors know this, I'm sure, and they probably want to step on the idea of a Haley surge as fast as possible."
Political analyst and Dillard University professor Robert Collins told Newsweek that "it's clear that Trump is concerned about the poll because he actually responded to it."
"Trump's strategy all throughout this election season has been to simply ignore his Republican primary opponents," Collins said. "He has avoided directly attacking most of them because he thinks it just gives them free publicity and increases their status in the eyes of the voters.
"If he is taking direct shots at Haley, that is pretty clear evidence that he thinks she might be becoming a threat and that he needs to respond quickly before her poll numbers grow any more."
Republican strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek that "Haley has momentum" in New Hampshire and it is important for Trump to "get off the sidelines and campaign."
"The invulnerability of Donald Trump as the Republican nominee is slowly crumbling," Klink said. "His knee-jerk response to the American Research Group's latest poll that shows him leading Nikki Haley by four points indicates that his seemingly insurmountable lead isn't so big after all."
Although the poll released on Friday might be worrying for Trump, it is also a clear outlier, with most surveys continuing to show the former president with a commanding lead over his challengers.
Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek that Trump's ongoing legal difficulties, which include court-ordered removal from the ballot in Colorado and 91 felony criminal charges, could be another reason to doubt that the 2024 nomination is a foregone conclusion.
"Trump used all caps; of course, he's concerned," Patton said of the former president's Truth Social post. "My guess is he knows this is a race between the primary calendar and his legal calendar. Can he hold it together with fishing wire and voodoo until he can secure the nomination? Time will tell."
Update 12/22/23, 2:55 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comments from Republican strategist Matt Klink.
About the writer
Aila Slisco is a Newsweek night reporter based in New York. Her focus is on reporting national politics, where she ... Read more