Donald Trump May Have Just Messed Up

Former President Donald Trump appears to have broken his popularity streak, according to a new poll.

The Emerson College poll released Monday showed Trump with his lowest level of support since the pollster began tracking the 2024 Republican primary race last summer. Although it's the first time Trump's polling numbers have dipped this low, he still maintains the majority support among GOP voters with 50 percent backing and continues to remain far ahead of his competitors with a 38-percent edge over his closest rival.

Trump began the presidential race with 55 percent backing, starting in June 2022 and through to February 2023, with his campaign launch doing little to change that support in November. At the same time, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was moving up in the polls, climbing up from 20 to 29 percent between June 2022 and January 2023.

In April, however, Trump's support shot up to 62 percent before slowly declining to 59 percent in June and 56 percent earlier this month—both figures still higher than his starting numbers.

Since the last poll was released on August 19, the Republican National Committee hosted its first primary debate, which Trump did not attend. The former president's mugshot was also released, making it the first mugshot of Trump or of any president. While Trump had been indicted three times this year prior to the RICO indictment in Fulton County, Georgia, he had never had a mugshot taken of him.

"Trump's indictments have had a more positive impact among Republican voters than skipping the debate," Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, told Newsweek. "The share of Republican primary voters who say Trump's indictments make them more likely to vote for the former president has remained at 56 percent before and after Trump was taken into custody."

Trump's campaign told Newsweek that despite the recent dip, Trump continues to lead the GOP field and pointed out the fact that the poll showed Trump with a 2-percentage point advantage in a hypothetical rematch with President Joe Biden.

"In addition to President Trump crushing all of the other primary candidates by a dominant margin, he is now leading Joe Biden in the general election," Steven Cheung, Trump's campaign spokesperson said. "This further proves that President Trump is the only person who can win back the White House, supercharge the economy, secure our border, safeguard communities, and put an end to unnecessary wars."

Trump's slight decline in Monday's poll appears to be the result of a boost in the polls for other Republican 2024 candidates, like political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy, who saw 9 percent support, as well as former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence, who each received 7 percent support. Haley only saw 2 percent support in the August 19 poll, while Pence received 3 percent in support.

DeSantis was the closest GOP rival to Trump, being backed by 12 percent of Republicans, a 2 percent increase from the last survey.

The new numbers suggest that Trump may have taken a hit in the polls due to his decision not to appear at the Republican debate last Wednesday. Instead of battling on stage with six other Republican White House hopefuls, Trump sat down for an interview with former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson that aired at the same as the debate.

"A vast majority (74 percent) of Republican primary voters did want the president to participate in the debate," Kimball said. "Following the debate where he did not participate, 20 percent of Republican primary voters say the debate skip made them less likely to support Trump, while 38 percent say it makes them more likely, and a plurality, 42 percent, say it had no impact on their vote."

A plurality of primary voters thought Ramaswamy won the RNC debate (27 percent), while 21 percent said DeSantis won, 12 percent said Pence won and 11 percent said Haley won, according to Monday's poll.

Overall, the new poll found that 43 percent of Republican primary voters said there's a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else—a 5 percent increase from the poll released earlier this month.

"There appears to be a softening of support for Trump since last week's survey, where 82% of Trump voters said they would definitely support him, compared to 71% after the debate," Kimball said in a press release. "DeSantis's support also softened from 32% who would definitely support to 25%, while Ramaswamy support remained consistent from 47% to 45%."

"While Trump saw a slight dip in support, the question from this poll is whether this is a blip for Trump or if the other Republican candidates will be able to rally enough support to be competitive for the caucus and primary season," he added.

The survey was conducted between August 25 and 26 among 1,000 nationally registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.