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Former President Donald Trump was handed a series of tough losses this week after several of his candidates were defeated by the Democrats in their tight midterm races. Despite earning Trump's coveted endorsement, candidates running for the Senate and governorships lost on Tuesday in states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan.
As of Wednesday afternoon, three of Trump's governor endorsements—Tudor Dixon in Michigan, Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Tim Michels in Wisconsin—all lost to their Democrat opponents. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz also lost to Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania.
After some anticipated a "red wave" on Tuesday, the disappointing losses prompted Republicans to turn on Trump and question his future in the Republican Party. On the other hand, Governor Ron DeSantis' rout in Florida captured people's attention and sparked conversations about his potential to represent the Republican Party in 2024.
For live updates on the midterms, head over to Newsweek's Live Blog: Who Won the Midterm Elections 2022?—Senate, House, Governor Results
Ahead of the election, Trump teased an announcement about his 2024 aspirations, and the blow to his endorsement record is unlikely to deter him from bowing out of the race. Experts anticipate that the former president will still make a 2024 announcement, contending that Trump is unlikely to recognize the midterm losses as his own.
"Trump is not sensitive to the endorsee losses," Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek. "He rarely takes the blame when endorsements fail."
In an interview that aired Tuesday, Trump told News Nation, "Well, I think if [Republicans] win, I should get all the credit. If they lose, I should not be blamed at all."
Ahead of Election Day, Republican strategist Jay Townsend had predicted that while Trump would reassign blame for candidates who lost by a wide margin, the former president would likely claim election fraud for any losses by a narrow margin.
Trump blamed Don Bolduc's loss in New Hampshire to incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan on Bolduc not embracing his fight against alleged 2020 election fraud.
Rottinghaus said even though Trump's endorsement record didn't end up being as strong in the general election as it had been in the Republican primaries, his influence over the GOP "makes actual wins or losses less important." So, future Republican candidates are still likely to vie for his support in hopes of winning over voters.
"Despite an uneven record of endorsement success, most Republicans would prefer an endorsement to no endorsement," Rottinghaus said.
Susanne Schwarz, an assistant professor at Swathmore College, told Newsweek while a poor endorsement record won't stop Trump from running in 2024, it could raise questions among the greater GOP about how successful Republicans could be in the next presidential election if Trump is the party's nominee, widening the disagreements between the GOP's Trump wing and its more moderate members.
Schwarz said that the losses of Trump's endorsees "suggest that running on a platform centered on election denialism will not be a successful strategy" for the former president himself. Political scientist Steven Schier agreed, telling Newsweek that because the results showed Trump does not have the so-called Midas touch, the Republican Party will be left to more intraparty fighting.
"In the short term, between now and 2024, it's nothing but trouble to the party internally, between MAGA and RINO," Schier said. MAGA is an acronym for Trump's "Make America great again" slogan, while RINO refers to "Republicans in name only."
Schier said that there are also more factors motivating Trump to run for a second term than there are preventing him from doing so.
For one, there has been widespread speculation that the Justice Department would indict Trump as part of the investigation into the records found at Mar-a-Lago in August. Schier said that "in the hope of discouraging them or making them look political," Trump will try to beat federal prosecutors to the punch by making a 2024 bid. That way, any charges against him will look like a move to block him from running again.
Another reason Trump may be eager to announce a 2024 run is to "freeze the field," scaring off opponents who would also be going for the Republican nomination, like DeSantis or Pence—Republicans who have not clung to Trump and who are likely to be emboldened by Trump's midterm losses.
Audrey Haynes, an associate political science professor at the University of Georgia, told Newsweek that Trump's losses spelled good news for DeSantis, who outperformed in Florida counties.
"Having a strong core of 25 percent of the Republican electorate that always turns out for you will help that candidate if there are other candidates competing, particularly a larger field," Haynes said. "If there is any competition that splits votes, Trump gets the nomination."
Because Trump has bigger fish to fry than to claim victory in the midterms, "the actual outcomes on 11/8 seem unlikely to alter his behavior toward announcing his 2024 candidacy," Schier said.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more