Donald Trump Gets Worst Poll Yet in State He Has Always Won

Donald Trump's lead over President Joe Biden in Ohio is currently at its lowest point during the 2024 Election cycle, according to a poll.

A Marist survey of 1,137 registered voters showed that Trump is ahead in Ohio, a state he won by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 races, by 48 percent to 41.

Trump is still expected to win the Buckeye State in November, but his current seven-point lead over Biden is the smallest margin in any Ohio election poll dating back to November 2023, as shown by 538's collection of surveys.

The poll is the first conducted in Ohio since Trump became the only former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime after the jury in his hush money trial found him guilty of 34 felony falsifying business records trial on May 30.

The poll results also arrive as Republican State Senator Michael Rulli defeated Democrat Michael Kripchak in a special election race for Ohio's 6th District seat by 10 points on Tuesday. While still a comprehensive victory, Rulli's margin of victory was drastically down from his four elections, which he won by more than 30 points. Trump also carried the district in eastern Ohio by around 30 points in 2020.

Trump previously had an eight-point lead over Biden in a National Public Affairs poll released in late May (48 percent to 40), as well as a Data for Progress survey last November (51 percent to 43). The Republican had a nine-point lead over the president in an Emerson College poll in March 2024 (50 percent to 41), with Trump normally recording double-digit leads over Biden in Ohio polling.

For decades Ohio was seen as a bellwether state, having chosen the eventual winning presidential candidate every election between Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to Trump in 2016. The margin of victory in Ohio was also often reflected in the national results.

However, the trend was bucked in 2020 when Trump managed to retain Ohio but still lost the election to Biden overall. Trump's eight-point victory in Ohio in 2020 also did not reflect what occurred nationally by a margin of more than 12 points, with Biden beating Trump by 4.5 percent across the country in 2020.

It remains to be seen if Ohio can return to being a bellwether state in November. While Trump is expected to easily retain Ohio again, the general race between Trump and Biden appears to be neck and neck with less than five months to go.

Trump's office has been contacted for comment via email.

When broken down further, the Marist poll shows that Trump is the preferred candidate over Biden with independent voters (43 percent to 37), as well as voters under the age of 35 (46 percent to 37).

Biden has managed to cut into Trump's lead among white voters in Ohio. The survey shows Trump has a 14-point lead among Biden among this demographic (52 percent to 38), down from the 21 points the Republican had in the 2020 Election.

However, the president has lost significant support from Black voters. In 2020, Biden carried Black votes by 83 percent, but this has fallen to 57 percent in the Marist survey. Trump received 25 percent from Black voters in the Marist poll.

Trump is also the preferred candidate in the potentially number one hot topic election issue of the economy.

A total of 59 percent of Ohio residents believe they and their families were "better off" while Trump was president, including 13 percent of Democrats. In comparison, 39 percent of Ohio residents think their family is doing better financially under the Biden administration.

The Marist poll surveyed 1,137 registered voters Ohio adults between June 3-6. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.