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The odds on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election fell after he was indicted on Monday over claims he broke the law in his bid to overturn the 2020 presidential election result in Georgia, according to a leading bookmaker.
Trump was charged with 13 counts, including solicitation of violation of oath by public officer, filing false documents, multiple conspiracy counts and alleged violation of Georgia's Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act. The former president has denied any wrongdoing, with his legal team describing the charges as "flawed and unconstitutional" in a statement.
Polling shows Trump is the clear favorite to be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, meaning his legal woes could play a major role in who occupies the White House from January 2025 onwards. He has also pleaded not guilty to charges relating to claims he orchestrated the payment of hush money to a porn star ahead of the 2016 presidential election, mishandled classified documents and used illegal tactics in a bid to block President Joe Biden's 2020 election victory.
According to U.K.-based bookmaker Betfair, the odds on Trump winning the 2024 presidential election slid from 9/4 to 13/5 after news broke that he had been charged for a fourth time. Odds of 13/5 mean you would win $13 for each $5 stake if you bet on Trump winning the 2024 election and he does.
However, Trump is still strongly favored to secure the Republican presidential nomination, with Betfair putting the odds of this happening at 4/9, versus 17/2 for each of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and business mogul Vikek Ramaswamy.
In a statement provided to Newsweek, Sam Rosbottom, a spokesperson for Betfair, commented: "A fourth criminal case in as many months has been brought against Donald Trump and punters betting on the 2024 US election winner have eased off supporting the former President, causing his odds to drift to 13/5 from 9/4, as Joe Biden increases his lead in the market as 9/5 favourite.
"In the absence of a strong challenger to the Republican nomination, punters view Trump as the clear favourite to win the party's backing and he's the strong 4/9 favourite to be the red name on the ballot, but will want to keep an eye on Vivek Ramaswamy, who is now 17/2 to win the nomination and 14/1 from 23/1 to win the election."
Newsweek has contacted Donald Trump for comment via the press inquiry form on his official website.
In an interview with Newsweek, David Andersen, who teaches U.S. politics at Durham University in the U.K., argued Trump's fourth indictment is unlikely to have a significant impact on his popularity.
He said: "The latest indictment is unlikely to help Trump but is also unlikely to hurt him much. Trump's supporters are completely convinced that he is the victim of political persecution, so will view this as just additional evidence of that.
"Neither indictments nor convictions are likely to sway his supporters. But other Americans who already oppose Trump will also just see this as further evidence that he was a poor leader and a criminal. That is something they were already convinced of, so it won't change their preferences or behaviors.
"Americans are already convinced of their own opinions on Trump and new evidence just strengthens those beliefs. It is hard to imagine that anyone in America is still forming an opinion on Trump and will find these latest indictments helpful in making up their minds."
About the writer
James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is on covering news and politics ... Read more