Donald Trump Wants to Change a 40-Year Trend

Former President Donald Trump wants to win New York, a state Republicans have lost in every presidential election since 1984, in November.

Trump appears poised to win the Republican presidential nomination after securing wins in key early-voting states. During an interview on Fox & Friends on Tuesday, the same day voters in 16 states and one territory held primaries, he made his case for expanding the electoral battleground map in November.

He said he plans to target New York, long viewed as among the most Democratic-leaning states in the country that shifted toward Republicans in the 2022 midterms despite an otherwise disappointing night for the party. The 2024 election will be a test of whether the GOP can hold on to the gains made two years earlier, or whether independent and moderate voters will shift back toward Democrats.

"Our country is a mess, and I think you have a much different country than you did," Trump said. "We're going to make a heavy play for New York. We're going to make a heavy play for Virginia. States that generally don't go Republican, I think they're going to go Republican in a lot."

He pointed to the uptick in migrants arriving in New York City, which has created a headache for Democrats leading the state, as a key issue that may push voters toward Republicans.

Massive Democratic margins in New York City, as well as in others like Albany, Buffalo and Rochester, have kept New York in Democratic hands for decades. But Republicans flipped several congressional seats in the state, while former GOP Representatives Lee Zeldein gave Governor Kathy Hochul a closer-than-expected race in 2022, an election defined by concerns about crime and the economy.

However, political experts told Newsweek that Trump will face an uphill battle to flip the state, which gave him a double-digit loss in 2020. It gave Biden 60.9 percent of its vote, while only 37.7 percent voted for Trump.

Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University told Newsweek there is generously a 1 percent chance that Trump will win New York.

He said that Trump may improve on his 2020 performance but cast doubt that he would be able to break 43 percent of the vote.

"Even though Governor Hochul's election against Zeldin was much closer than it should have been, and Zeldin is a Trump supporter, the anti-Trump feeling in New York is particularly intense, rivaled only by the likes of California and Vermont," he said. "Trump won't get any Democrats to speak of and will have a very tough time with independents."

The economy reversing course or an increase in inflation could hurt Biden, Reeher said. Additionally, backlash faced by Biden from progressives over his response to the conflict between Israel and Hamas could hurt him in New York. While the progressives won't vote for Trump, they may stay home, he said.

Meena Bose, the executive dean of Hofstra University's Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek that the last time New York went to Republicans in a presidential race was a landslide victory that saw former President Ronald Reagan win 49 out of 50 states.

"A landslide victory in the Electoral College seems unlikely in 2024 for either party. Given the overwhelming registration advantage for Democrats in New York, a Republican victory in the general election seems unlikely," she said, noting that issues like immigration, the economy and public safety remain most important for New Yorkers.

Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek that while Trump will do well in rural areas, parts of upstate and Staten Island, it remains unclear whether he will make inroads with voters downstate.

"He would have a chance perhaps if he were a more moderate candidate," he said.

Newsweek reached out to Trump's campaign for comment via email.

What Do Polls Say About Trump's Chances?

A Siena College poll of 806 registered voters found that 48 percent of New Yorkers planned to vote for Biden, while 36 would support Trump in a head-to-head matchup. The poll was conducted from February 12 to 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report, which tracks elections across the country, rates New York as Solid Democratic in the presidential race, meaning it is "not considered competitive" and "not likely to become closely contested."

New York has not seen a close presidential election since the 1980s. The 1988 election is the last time the results were in the single digits, as the state voted for Michael Dukakis over George H.W. Bush by about four percentage points. Since then, Democrats handily won every presidential race in New York.

Hochul won in 2022 by about 6.4 percentage points, the closest margin for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since 2002, when New Yorkers backed Republican Governor George Pataki's reelection campaign. Republicans also flipped four congressional seats in the state, helping them win narrow control of the House of Representatives.