Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Pennsylvania Slip Just Days Before Election

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Trump's chances of winning the battleground state of Pennsylvania have slipped just days before the election.

The president's chances of clinching a victory in the Keystone State fell from +188 to +200 overnight, taking his implied chance of winning from 34.72 percent to 33.33 percent.

Oddschecker, which aggregates betting data from dozens of bookmakers, told Newsweek that odds within the state are remarkably similar to those forecast across the country.

The bookmaker gave Biden odds of -190 and Trump odds of +188 to win the presidency, a spokesman said.

This means Biden has an implied probability of 65.53 percent compared with Trump's 34.72 percent.

It was a similar story from leading UK bookmaker Betfair, who pegged Biden as the odds-on favorite with a 66 percent chance of winning, while Trump trailed at 34 percent.

Correspondingly, Trump trailed in Pennsylvania with an implied probability of a 35 percent chance of winning, compared to a Democrat win of 65 percent.

Trump polls
Trump trails in Pennsylvania with an implied probability of a 35 percent chance of winning, compared to a Democrat win of 65 percent. Dan Kitwood/Getty

Protests erupt

Fierce protests have rocked the state following the shooting death of 27-year-old Black man, Walter Wallace during a confrontation with police in West Philadelphia Monday.

Wallace's family has said he suffered from bipolar disorder and was in crisis during the time of the shooting.

Video posted online shows the moment Philadelphia Police fired several times at the 27-year-old as he approached them allegedly armed with a knife.

Demonstrations erupted in the city on Monday evening, continuing into the early hours of Tuesday morning.

It is unclear how the protests will affect voting in the state in light of the Black Lives Matter and anti-racism demonstrations.

Philadelphia protest
People hold banners and signs during a demonstration in Philadelphia on October 27, over the police shooting of 27-year-old Black man Walter Wallace. GABRIELLA AUDI/Getty

Pennsylvania has been in focus for months as the two candidates have campaigned heavily to win the swing state and secure its 20 electoral votes.

Voters three key concerns in the state are the economy, the coronavirus pandemic and health care, a recent Muhlenberg College/Morning Call's survey found.

The political influence of Pennsylvania is significant with the state's 20 electoral votes all must-haves in almost every likely path to the necessary 270 for either Trump or Biden.

Website FiveThirtyEight, which uses statistical analysis to forecast outcomes, calls it "the single most important state of the 2020 election," and the likeliest to provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College.

"Pennsylvania is this microcosm of the nation where Democratic support has become more and more concentrated in highly populated areas and Republican support is becoming concentrated in less populated areas," David O'Connell, a political science professor at Dickinson College in Carlisle, in the south central part of the state, told Newsweek. "The outcome [here] will determine the fate of the nation itself."

Biden, originally from the state, addressed the state's importance while speaking at an event Saturday, saying: "It may come down to Pennsylvania.

"I believe in you, I believe in my state. The choice has never been clearer and the stakes have never been higher."

Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania during the 2016 presidential election campaign, receiving less than one percent more of the vote than then Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

His win bucked a recent trend of Democrat victories in presidential elections in the state, with such victories in every election since 1992 up until 2016.

Biden has been the betting favorite to win the 2020 Presidential election since May as Trump's chances of clinching a second term continue to slide.

The latest online polls paint Joe Biden as the overwhelming favorite to secure a win.

However, it was a different story at the start of the year with the former Vice President's election odds implying he had as little as a 13 percent chance of becoming the next POTUS.

2020 election odds
A poll released by Betfair shows how Trump and Biden's popularity has tracked over the past year. Betfair

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