Donald Trump's lead is growing over Republican rivals

Donald Trump first inched further ahead as top contender for the Republican presidential nomination after announcing that he expected to be indicted in New York, according to exclusive Trafalgar Group polling for Newsweek. Then, after the indictment happened, he surged in the polls.

The announcement on March 30 that Trump would be indicted in New York, becoming the first former U.S. president to face charges in a criminal case, confirmed the prediction he had made on March 19. Trump has been under investigation for allegedly violating campaign finance laws over hush-money payments to an adult film star and over his business records. He has called the indictment politically-motivated and denied wrongdoing.

Leaping to Trump's defense, Republicans have said the indictment will only help him in his bid to win the GOP nomination and try to return to the White House.

The polling for Newsweek points in that direction.

In a poll taken March 14-19, largely before Trump had said he expected to be indicted, he was supported by 43.8 percent of likely Republican primary voters.

In a second poll taken March 22-25, after his announcement, he was supported by 44.4 percent. A total of 1,082 people were polled. And in a third poll taken Friday-Sunday, after the indictment came down, Trump surged to 56.2 percent. The margin of error was 2.9 percent.

In all three polls, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was second of the 11 who are seen as likely contenders, though his numbers slipped after news of an impending indictment of Trump, going from 32.2 percent to 30.4 percent. Neither responded to emailed requests for comment. In the third poll ending Sunday, DeSantis fell to 22.5 percent.

Trump has been under investigation over his business dealings in Manhattan as well as allegedly paying adult-film actress Stormy Daniels to keep their relationship a secret ahead of the 2016 election. The charges are so far sealed.

Robert Cahaly, chief pollster for Trafalgar, predicted that if Trump can hold above 50 percent, "then this field of Republicans that we think will expand, won't, because some who are on the fence will stay on the side of not running." Whether he can or not could depend on what's in the sealed indictment. "If it's weak and all about Stormy Daniels," then his polling numbers could remain high, said Cahaly.

The Trafalgar polling also tried to get a better sense of sentiment towards the candidates without calculations as to who would have the best chance of beating President Joe Biden or another Democrat.

To that end, the first poll asked respondents: "If you personally had the ability to name the Republican presidential nominee, who would it be?" In that case, DeSantis moved much closer to Trump, trailing him 38.5 percent to 40.2 percent.

Asked for their reasons for supporting a candidate, among eight possible answers, "Always puts America first" was the most popular response at 38.4 percent, followed by "represents a new generation of leaders" at 18.7 percent.

Following those were, in order, "understands the concerns of average people;" "can win the general election;" "represents a threat to the Washington establishment;" "economic issues;" "culture warrior;" and "international issues."

Trafalgar also asked in its first poll for respondents to name their second choice.

Trump and DeSantis also dominated, though Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy also featured.

In an indication of how passionate Trump's most fervent supporters were, nearly 16 percent of likely GOP primary voters who had called him their first choice also listed him as their second choice, even though they weren't supposed to, Cahaly noted.

Among those with "minuscule support nationally" thus far, "they all benefit from not being Trump," said Robert Shapiro, a professor of government and public affairs at Columbia University.

In the poll taken after Trump announced an indictment was forthcoming, outside of Trump and DeSantis, only Liz Cheney and Mike Pence cracked 5 percent. But in the third poll showing Trump surging post-indictment, Pence sunk below 5 percent.

But Cahaly said it would be shortsighted to dismiss any of the 11 as irrelevant, as they will be important to the process of choosing a nominee, and they'll be setting themselves up for future opportunities in the party.

"Can you imagine how fun these debates will be?" said Cahaly. "You put Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder and Nikki Haley on a stage together, and that's a WWE cage match. If the Republican party were smart, they'd do it on pay-per-view, charge five bucks a head and make a mint."

The third poll asked: "Does former President Trump's indictment make you more or less likely to vote for him?" A whopping 51.9 percent answered "much more likely" while 22.1 percent said "more likely." Twenty-six percent answered either "less likely" or "much less likely."

Below are the 11 potential candidates, in order of how they fared, along with some of their strengths and other analytical analysis based on Trafalgar's polling data.

Donald Trump: Legally speaking, an indictment wouldn't prevent him from becoming president for a second time. "His base supports him since he sticks it in the eye, so to speak, of the mainstream party leaders," said Shapiro. But Cahaly warns that Trafalgar's polling data indicates that there are still about 10 percent of GOP voters who are "Never-Trumpers." The indictment may hurt him in the general election, but "it's helping him in the primary," adds Cahaly. "There's this point where conservatives look at who the other side is attacking the most, and they figure, that's who should be their leader."

Ron DeSantis: The governor of Florida has established himself as a culture warrior, most famously by objecting to lessons about transgender issues aimed at children and trying to suppress the teaching of Critical Race Theory in public schools. He also earned the respect of conservatives by adopting less restrictive COVID-19 protocols than most other states. "He has an established reputation of being Trump without Trump's utterly despicable behavior and personal qualities," said Shapiro. Fortunately for the governor, nearly all of Trump's supporters would fall in line and vote for DeSantis if he were to beat Trump in the primary, said Cahaly.

Liz Cheney: The former Wyoming representative is a harsh critic of Trump and she turned off the GOP's conservative wing with her work on the January 6 Committee. "She is the anti-Trump candidate and champion of Reagan Republican conservatism," said Shapiro. "With Liz Cheney, it would be a choice, not an echo. All the others would be New Coke varieties of Trumpism." Cheney would "take Trump on hard," said John Pitney, a professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College. "That's why Trump would never debate her. He is scared of strong women," Pitney said. Cahaly added that 8.7 percent of GOP primary voters call Cheney their first choice, and that nearly all of them are Never-Trumpers who'd either vote against him in the general election or sit on the sidelines should he be the Republican nominee. In the third poll when Trump surged above 56 percent, taking points away from nearly all other contenders, Cheney was the exception, as her numbers ticked up to 10.2 percent.

Mike Pence: The former vice president "has appeal to religious values voters opposed to Trump," said Shapiro. Pence is expected to announce shortly whether or not he is running. If he does, "It would be a contest for the ages: Never have former running mates sparred in a presidential primary, and the intensity of it would be unmatched," Michael Cohen of the Cohen Research Group wrote in The Hill. Cahaly also notes Pence's popularity among Christians, most of whom would support whoever the eventual nominee might be.

Nikki Haley: The former governor of South Carolina has "some foreign policy heft as UN Ambassador," said Shapiro. Noting she was born to immigrants from India, he added that she "appeals to voters interested in the Republicans having the first woman president and their first non-white one." Cahaly adds that Haley "has a foot in each camp, because some Trumpers like her, and some Never-Trumpers like her. She's as close to half and half as you'll find."

Mike Pompeo: The former head of the CIA and former secretary of state under Trump, the author of Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love, said his decision as to whether or not he runs has no bearing on his former boss' declaration that he is a candidate. "I've heard some who claim to be conservative excuse hypocrisy by saying something like, 'We're electing a President, not a Sunday school teacher.' That's true. But having taught Sunday school, maybe we can get both," Pompeo told an enthusiastic crowd at CPAC in March. "There are a lot of people who liked Trump's foreign policy and give Pompeo the credit." said Cahaly, adding that: "The only person he has the knife out for is Nikki Haley; he thinks he can knock off her voters and they'll come to him."

Glenn Youngkin: The governor of Virginia "has appeal to suburban voters concerned with the education issue. National voters would vote for him for the same reason," said Shapiro. There is a surprisingly large number — more than 50 percent — of Youngkin supporters who are Never-Trumpers, even though Trump supported Youngkin's gubernatorial campaign, said Cahaly. Beating a Democrat in a blue state, one that went for Biden by 10 points in the last presidential election, bodes well for Youngkin's future, many political observers have noted.

Tim Scott: The senator from South Carolina "is a fresh, African-American face in the Republican party," said Shapiro. Cahaly adds that Scott is reliably conservative on all the issues GOP voters care most about, including being anti-abortion, supporting the lowering of taxation and lessening of federal regulations, supporting domestic energy production and cracking down on illegal immigration. According to AP VoteCast, 14 percent of Black voters (higher than in years past, but still low) cast their ballots for Republicans in the recent midterm elections, thus Cahaly also notes that Scott's ethnicity can help him. "Republicans love anybody who doesn't fit the traditional definition of a conservative," he said. Scott also scores high among Hispanics, with more than 11 percent of them calling him their first choice for the nomination.

Larry Elder: The self-described "Sage From South Central" led a field of dozens of GOP hopefuls who tried to displace California Governor Gavin Newsom, though the Democrat easily held off the recall challenge. Elder represents "the World Wrestling Federation version" of attacking "wokeness," said Pitney. Elder spent decades behind a microphone as a talk-radio host where he demonstrated an encyclopedic knowledge of facts and figures that would come in handy during debates, said Cahaly. "There's not a Republican who would be safe with Elder on the stage with them, other than Trump," said Cahaly. "Elder has a sharp wit. He's quick. I don't see him attacking Trump, but I wouldn't want to be any of the other candidates facing him."

Chris Sununu: The governor of New Hampshire also attracts his share of Never-Trumpers, just not as many as Cheney, says Cahaly. Sununu is a "more moderate Republican and has not offended the party like Cheney has," said Shapiro. Cahaly adds: "People have the idea that Sununu can bridge some gaps. He talks about community and bringing everybody together. And he is all kinds of personable. Watch him on TV; he is a likable guy."

Vivek Ramaswamy: Like Elder, Ramaswamy, the founder of a biotech company and author of Woke, Inc. and Nation of Victims, will attack wokeness with a vengeance, says Pitney, though unlike Elder's aggressive approach, he'll deliver "the Masterpiece Theater" version. Cahaly adds that Ramaswamy "has a niche among avid conservatives — and I mean avid — the kind who watch and listen to a lot of conservative TV and radio. Among that crowd, he has an intellectual appeal and a conservative, economic purity."

Update, 4/3/23 at 12:30 a.m. ET: The story was updated to include data from a third Trafalgar poll, also exclusive to Newsweek, which showed Trump's support rising to 56.2 percent post-indictment.