Donald Trump's Standing With Swing Voters Drops as Tariffs Hit—Analysis

President Donald Trump's standing with critical swing voters appears to have taken a hit as his new tariff policies kick in, according to a new analysis from Impact Social that was shared with Newsweek.

Newsweek has reached out to the White House for comment on Saturday.

Why It Matters

Post-election exit poll surveys have shown that Trump won swing voters by a significant margin in the 2024 election. This was particularly notable in the critical swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which went for President Joe Biden in 2020 after going for Trump in 2016. These critical states flipped back for the Republican president in last year's election.

Economic issues and inflation were a top concern for voters in the November presidential election. While Trump and his allies say that the new tariffs will ultimately be a boon for the U.S. economy, most economists have said they will increase inflation and possibly lead to a recession.

What To Know

On Wednesday—which Trump called "Liberation Day"—the president announced that he would impose higher tariff rates on dozens of nations that run trade surpluses with the U.S.

Speaking at the White House, Trump said he would impose a 10 percent baseline tariff on imports from almost all countries and "reciprocal" tariffs on others, unveiling a chart showing higher duties on some of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners.

While some nations will only face the 10 percent baseline, many have been set above 30 and even higher than 40 percent. Trump says the tariffs will be paid by the foreign countries, but most economists and analysts say these costs will simply be passed on to consumers, which would dramatically increase the price of many imported goods.

A new report shared with Newsweek by Impact Social, a specialist social media, online monitoring and analysis company, shows that swing voters' sentiments toward Trump have dropped further with his tariff moves.

"After holding steady for a month at -12, Trump's net sentiment among swing voters has now dropped to -15—a sign that recent developments are beginning to cut through," the report said.

It continued: "This shift is being lead by the rollout of new tariffs, which have quickly become the dominant issue in swing voter conversations. A combined 38 percent of negative sentiment is now tied to tariffs, split between general concern (25 percent) and a fear personal financial impact (13 percent). Posts are increasingly focused on how tariffs might raise prices, disrupt local economies, and threaten job security—moving the conversation from political positioning to real-world consequences.​"

The new analysis aligns with public polling, which shows voters sorrowing on Trump's handling of economic issues.

According to a late March survey of 1,021 adults by Milwaukee-based Marquette Law School, 45 percent of Republicans assess the state of the economy as excellent or good, while 46 percent view it as "not so good" and an additional 9 percent as "poor."

Additionally, a majority of adults (58 percent) believe Trump's policies will result in higher inflation, with the number of Republicans believing the president will reduce inflation declining from 76 percent in December to 62 percent in March.

Trump's overall job approval has remained largely unchanged between January and March, currently enjoying 46 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval. His Republican support is at 87 percent, down from 89 percent in January. Approval among independents dipped from 37 to 32 percent, and edged up to 10 percent from 9 percent among Democrats.

What People Are Saying

Senator Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, told Fox Business on Friday: "I'm getting all kinds of reactions from businesses, farmers in Wisconsin that are highly concerned about what's happening. Those are the facts. All I can really do is report the reality to the administration, let them know how these actions are impacting my constituents, and it'll be pretty much up to President Trump and his administration to determine exactly how long they're going to go down this road."

Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with the Democratic Party, in a statement emailed to Newsweek on Friday: "We need a rational, well-thought-out and fair trade policy. Trump's across-the-board tariffs are not the way to do it. We do not need a blanket and arbitrary sales tax on imported goods which will raise prices on products that the American people desperately need. We should be doing everything we can to lower prices, not make them incredibly higher."

President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Friday: "Big business is not worried about the Tariffs, because they know they are here to stay, but they are focused on the BIG, BEAUTIFUL DEAL, which will SUPERCHARGE our Economy. Very important. Going on right now!!!"

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday: "These tariffs restore fair and reciprocal trade and level the playing field for American workers and innovators. The President understands that FREE trade ONLY works when it's FAIR!"

What Happens Next?

Trump and his allies have said repeatedly that there may be some temporary economic "disruption," but that tariffs will ultimately benefit the U.S. economy and Americans.

Trading partners have responded in various ways to the newly imposed tariffs, with some announcing reciprocal measures. Others are holding off or attempting to negotiate with the Trump administration to lower the rates.

Meanwhile, the stock market reacted negatively this past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding more than 1,500 points on back-to-back days for the first time ever. The average plunged more than 2,200 points on Friday after dropping over 1,600 on Thursday.