Donald Trump's Worst-Case Scenario For Iowa

Donald Trump is on track for a convincing win in Monday's Iowa caucus, with the worst-case scenario for him being that another candidate establishes themselves as his clear main challenger, according to a prominent political scientist.

After months of verbal sparring the Republican presidential hopefuls will face voters for the first time at the Iowa caucus, following by the New Hampshire primary on January 23. As the first states to vote Iowa and New Hampshire can play an oversized role in the Republican and Democratic presidential candidate selection, in particular by thinning down the herd of hopefuls to a smaller group of main contenders.

Victory for Trump in Iowa, which in 2016 he lost to then GOP rival Ted Cruz, would reflect his clear polling lead. On January 11 an analysis of recent polls by electoral analysis website FiveThirtyEight had Trump as the favored presidential candidate of 60.4 percent of GOP voters, well ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in second with 12.1 percent and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, in third on 11.7 percent.

Speaking to Newsweek Thomas Gift, a political scientist who heads up the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, said he was confident Trump is on track for victory in Iowa. He said: "If I were the oddsmaker, I'd put the chance of Trump losing in Iowa at about the same chance as Trump admitting he lost the 2020 election. In short, it's hard to imagine it happening.

"It's not surprising that journalists want to make a horserace out of the Hawkeye state. But all signs point to it being a Trump coronation. If it isn't, the pollsters will have a lot to answer for."

However, Gift noted there is a danger for Trump that the Iowa caucus could start to see his GOP opposition, currently split between DeSantis and Haley, coalesce around one of his two rivals. He said: "Best-case scenario is for DeSantis or Haley to snatch the runner-up position by a wide margin, narrow the field, and try to get into a one-on-one race with Trump heading into New Hampshire."

While Trump has a big lead nationally. recent polling suggests Haley is close behind in New Hampshire, with an American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters giving the former president a lead of just four points over his rival.

Haley could also get a boost from former supporters of Chris Christie, the ex-New Jersey governor, who dropped out of the contest on Wednesday in order to "make sure that in no way do I enable Donald Trump to ever be president of the United States again."

Asked whether Iowa could see a repeat of 2016, when Trump lost the state caucus to a campaign from Senator Ted Cruz which heavily targeted evangelicals, Gift said: "The Republican Party isn't remotely comparable to what it was in 2016. This is Trump's party now, and the sheer size of the lead that he enjoys is on a different scale than what we've seen in previous contests."

On Wednesday DeSantis and Haley clashed in the fifth Republican presidential debate, though Trump once again refused to attend and instead spoke at a live town hall-style event hosted by Fox News.

Newsweek has reached out to Trump's representatives for comment by email.