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The Democrats' strategy of paying millions of dollars promoting controversial MAGA midterm candidates in order to turn off potential voters appears to be working in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, according to a polling group.
A new survey shows that Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro is the preferred choice from voters for Pennsylvania governor over the Donald Trump-endorsed Republican state Senator Doug Mastriano.
According to the poll, conducted by Blueprint Polling, which works with the Democratic Party, Shapiro holds an 11.3 percent lead over Mastriano (50.7 percent to 39.4 percent) ahead of November's midterms.
Blueprint Polling suggests that Shapiro appears to be benefiting from the Pennsylvania Democratic Party's risky strategy of spending money promoting Mastriano—who was outside the Capitol during the January 6 riot, supports the false claim the 2020 election was rigged and opposes abortion rights with no exceptions—over more moderate GOP candidates.
When Shapiro voters and undecideds were asked in the survey if they would vote for the Democratic candidate or a moderate Republican in a hypothetical match-up, one in five Shapiro voters say they would have voted for the Republican, or were unsure who they would back.
When broken down further, 29 percent of undecideds said they would vote for a more moderate GOP candidate over Shapiro.
In a memo revealing the results, Blueprint Polling said the Democrats' "bold move" in aiding Mastriano's attempts to be the Republican gubernatorial nomination "looks to be paying off" for the time being.
"While an unnamed, hypothetical candidate is not the same as a flesh-and-blood politician, it's clear that the race for governor would be closer at this time if the Republicans had nominated a candidate who appealed to centrists—and given the bad midterm environment, very likely would have tilted in the GOP's favor," the group said.
Elsewhere, the poll also found that John Fetterman is also ahead in the race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat ahead of the Trump-backed Mehmet Oz, with the Democrat leading the celebrity heart surgeon 48.9 percent to 39.6 percent.
The results do not look as bright for President Joe Biden when Pennsylvania voters asked if they would vote for Biden or Trump in 2024 in a hypothetical match-up. Neither Biden nor Trump have said that they're running for president in the next election, though it's expected that announcements from both will be coming soon.
In a February poll, Biden led Trump 45 percent to 40. In the latest survey, the race is now a statistical tie as Biden's 42 to 41 percent lead over Trump falls within the survey's +/- 3.67 percent margin of error.
Biden beat Trump in Pennsylvania by just 1.2 percent of the vote in 2020, taking back the state which Trump won in 2016, becoming the first Republican to do so in 28 years.
The Blueprint Polling survey was conducted between July 19-21, with 712 voters.
Blueprint Polling is a sister company to Chism Strategies that conducts survey research in federal, state, and local elections. Chism Strategies, founded in 2013, is a strategic communications firm that deals with Democratic and progressive campaigns.
Newsweek reached out to Mastriano for comment.
About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more