Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker Tipped to Triumph by Election Forecasters

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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Republican nominees Dr. Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker are favored to win their respective Senate races in Georgia and Pennsylvania by betters on Polymarket, an online platform for betting on politics and other real-world events.

The current odds are in favor of the two candidates, with a total of $64,000 bet in Pennsylvania and $78,000 in Georgia.

While between July 27 and October 17 there was a significant distance between Oz and his Democratic rival John Fetterman, with the lieutenant governor enjoying a large lead over the celebrity doctor, betters are now picking a different outcome for the Pennsylvania midterms.

Herschel Walker, Dr. Mehmet Oz
Herschel Walker (L) and Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). Betters on Polymarket expect them to win their respective Senate races in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Getty Images

In both states, betters are now considering a victory for the Republican candidates as more likely, by pricing bets at $0.55 on Polymarket for each nominee (meaning they have a 55% chance of winning), while previously bets on Oz winning were as low as $0.27 and those for Walker as low as $0.35.

If you bet a dollar on Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock winning in Georgia, you would currently get back $2.17—while if you bet $1 on Walker you would only get back $1.79.

If you bet a dollar on Fetterman winning the Pennsylvania's seat, you would get back $2.18—while if you bet $1 on Oz, you would get back $1.79 max.

Newsweek has contacted Polymarket for comment.

These changes in betters' favorites are reflected by adjustments in the latest polls, which have seen both Oz and Walker improving their chances of victory.

After the controversial Fetterman-Oz debate, the celebrity doctor—who at his lowest was estimated to have a 17 in 100 chance of winning the Pennsylvania's Senate seat on September 13, according to polling website FiveThirtyEight—now has a 43 in 100 chance of victory.

Fetterman, whose fitness to serve has repeatedly been questioned by his rival after he suffered a stroke in May, is still ahead with a 57 in 100 chance of winning.

But some recent polls have given Oz in the lead, with co/efficient saying the celebrity doctor is expected to get 48 percent of the vote against his rival's 45 percent, according to a survey conducted between October 26 and 28.

Pro-Republican Wave

Walker, whose campaign has recently suffered from the abortion accusations made against him, is also profiting from a pro-Republican wave sweeping the country ahead of the midterms.

Walker's chances of taking Georgia's Senate seat away from Warnock have been boosted from a 40 in 100 chance on October 16 to a 53 in 100 chance on November 1, according to FiveThirtyEight.

At the same time, Warnock has gone from having a 60 in 100 chance of victory on October 12 to having a 47 in 100 chance of keeping his Senate seat on November 1.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Georgia Senate race is "dead heat," with the two competitors being exactly level.

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About the writer

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more