Dr. Oz's Strategy Against John Fetterman Is Working

Dr. Mehmet Oz's strategy in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania against Lt. Governor John Fetterman may be getting results as the gap between the candidates has declined over the past month.

The Republican, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has focused heavily on crime in the crucial Senate race where he's been trailing Fetterman in a slew of recent polls.

Seventy-one percent of Oz's ads have focused on crime since the beginning of August, according to the non-partisan Cook Political Report and that highly sensitive issue could be denting the Democrat's lead.

The Oz campaign has previously criticized Fetterman's campaign for employing two men - Lee and Denis Horton - who were wrongly convicted of murder in 1993 and granted clemency last year.

Oz also made headlines in September for hiring people to play convicted felons holding signs saying "Inmates for Fetterman."

With less than four weeks until the crucial midterm elections, the strategy may be chipping away at Fetterman's longstanding lead.

Polls and Odds

In mid-August, the Cook Political Report moved the Pennsylvania Senate race from "leans Democrat" to "toss up," leading the Fetterman team to defend the campaign.

"In the past month the GOP threw everything they had at John, they spent millions in negative ads against John, Fox News has attacked John almost every night, but here we are, not only still standing but still winning," Joe Calvello, the director of communications for Fetterman's campaign, told Newsweek at the time.

However, on August 31, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball forecast at the University of Virginia (UVA) moved the Pennsylvania race to "leans Democratic" from "toss-up."

Analysis from poll tracker FiveThirtyEight rates Fetterman as favored to win the election, but his lead has slipped over the past month.

As of October 10, FiveThirtyEight found that Fetterman led Oz by six points, with 48.3 percent support to Oz's 42.3 percent.

That's a notable decline since September 10, when Fetterman had 50.2 percent support to Oz's 39. 5 percent - an advantage of more than 10 points.

A Trafalgar Group poll conducted among 1,078 likely voters from October 8 to 11 found that both Fetterman and Oz had lost support compared to their earlier poll from September 13 to 15.

The survey found Fetterman with 47.2 percent support to Oz's 44.8 percent and Libertarian candidate Erik Gerhardt on 3.4 percent and 4.1 percent undecided.

In the September poll, Fetterman recorded 47.7 percent support, Oz had 45.9 percent support, Gerhardt had 3.5 percent and 2.4 percent were undecided. That appears to show the number of undecided voters has risen over the past month.

The Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party and enjoys an A- rating from FiveThirtyEight.

Irish bookmakers Paddy Power told Newsweek that the odds on Oz winning the Pennsylvania race have shortened. Those odds were 9/4 on September 20 and 6/4 on Friday.

A Democratic Weakness

Republicans aren't just focusing on crime in the Pennsylvania race. One example is Wisconsin, where GOP Senator Ron Johnson has been taking aim at his Democratic opponent Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes on crime rates in Milwaukee.

Robert Singh, a professor at the Department of Politics at Birkbeck, University of London, told Newsweek on Friday that crime was a weakness for the Democrats.

"Crime remains one area where some Democrats are vulnerable," Singh said. "In particular, the rising rates of crime, and especially gun violence and theft in Democratic controlled cities, is a weakness."

"The Republicans have had some success over recent years in portraying the Democrats as 'soft' on crime, aided - unintentionally - by some of the party's base embracing notions of 'defunding' the police, offering sanctuary cities, and adopting very permissive policies on drugs use and even petty crime," he said.

Singh said that to some extent "crime represents the flip side of the cultural war on abortion, where the Republicans feel they have identified a weakness that resonates with moderate voters."

"Whether this strategy will ultimately help Dr. Oz prevail remains to be seen - the economy, jobs, and inflation remain central to many, if not most, voters' decisions," he added.

An Effective Attack

Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek that Pennsylvania voters "have been bombarded by ads in recent weeks seeming to suggest that Fetterman wants to let criminals go free and to reduce punishments even for violent offenders."

"There's no doubt Oz has been able to effectively attack Fetterman as being soft on crime - part of a broader bundle of policy areas where he's been framed as far-left and outside the mainstream," he said.

"This line of criticism closely mirrors Donald Trump's efforts in 2020 to present himself as the president of 'law and order' and to malign Joe Biden as sympathetic to a 'defund the police' agenda," Gift said.

"In the case of Fetterman, the attack seems to be sticking," he added.

Brittany Yanick, Communications Director for Dr. Oz's senate campaign, told Newsweek, "John Fetterman is falling behind. Unlike no-show Fetterman, Dr. Oz is talking to voters - Republicans, Democrats, and Independents — who want to see a change from the failed policies of the past."

"John Fetterman this entire campaign has failed to be honest about two things: his health and his support for releasing convicted murderers back on the streets. Dr. Oz is running against the most pro-murderer candidate and we are going to win in November.

Pennsylvanians can't afford a Bernie Sanders socialist that wants to release 1/3 of PA inmates, decriminalize all drugs, and eliminate life sentences for murderers. John Fetterman has already failed to serve the voters of Pennsylvania twice — why would they give him a third chance?"

Newsweek has reached out to the Fetterman campaign for comment.