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When Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa attended Donald Trump's inauguration in January, the symbolism was not lost on many inside his country.
With Ecuador set to hold national elections soon after, it was a calculated move—a final push from a politician whose rapid ascent is disrupting not only his nation, but could also reverberate across the region.
Noboa's blend of populist bravado, aggressive security policies and alignment with brash Trumpian politics has positioned him, at 37, as a formidable figure in Latin America's shifting landscape.
A political scion from a banana dynasty, he capitalized on the fear and frustration of Ecuadorians to win office in a snap election in 2023 and is now the favorite to win again as the incumbent. Newsweek reached out to the Ecuadorian presidency and Ecuador's U.S. embassy for comment.
Ecuador voted on February 9, which resulted in a "technical tie." Noboa, of National Democratic Action, or ADN, and Luisa González, of Citizen Revolution, both received approximately 44 percent of the ballots so now face a runoff on April 13—a repeat of the 2023 race.
Once a peaceful nation, Ecuador has been grappling with unprecedented violence over the past five years. Wedged between the world's two largest cocaine producers, Colombia and Peru, its strategic location has turned the country into a growing hub for drug trafficking. The homicide rate has surged amid gang wars over control of drug routes, driving a sharp rise in Ecuadorian migration to the U.S.
This trend is reflected in the massive increase in migrants recorded at the U.S.-Mexico border, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection reporting a record 124,000 encounters with Ecuadorian nationals in 2024—up from 24,900 in 2022.
During his 13 months in office, Noboa has declared war on organized crime, embracing a "mano dura" (iron fist) approach that's resonated with voters. In 2024, authorities arrested over 60,000 suspected criminals and confiscated 280 tons of illicit drugs, a 29 percent increase from 2023, per local media citing Ecuadorian authorities.
"People wanted a strong response to organized crime, and Noboa delivered," said Glaeldys González, an Ecuador specialist with the International Crisis Group. "He capitalized on a moment when the country needed a moderate, but as the election approached, he doubled down on his security agenda."
Plan Fénix and the Militarization of Ecuador
Noboa's "Plan Fénix" has transformed the fight against organized crime into a military operation, declaring an "internal armed conflict" against 22 criminal organizations. He deployed troops to prisons, ports and city streets and sent the military to fight gangs after they launched coordinated attacks in Guayaquil.
The parallels to El Salvador's Nayib Bukele—seen by some as Washington's new best friend in Central America—are hard to miss, and Noboa doesn't appear to mind the comparison. "We have already completed conversations with international groups that built the prisons in El Salvador," he announced in January, signaling his intent to replicate Bukele's controversial but locally popular crackdown on crime.
In Ecuador, the results of Noboa's response to crime remain mixed. According to local media citing government figures, violent deaths dropped by 15 percent in 2024, but critics argue that the statistic masks deeper, unresolved issues. Gangs, forced into hiding early in the crackdown, have reemerged, with January marking Ecuador's most violent month on record, with 755 homicides.
Fernando Carrión, a security expert at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (FLACSO) in Ecuador, noted that Noboa's policies initially created a sense of stability, but the resurgence of violence has exposed the limitations of military force. "The security situation is far from under control," Carrión said.
"The homicide rate stopped doubling, but it remains extraordinarily high. Without addressing the structural issues—corruption, weak institutions, economic precarity—security gains won't hold."
Noboa's Pivot Toward Trump
Noboa, who was born in the U.S., can trace his political ascendance to a similar populist strategy pioneered by the American president, echoing Trump-style governance with strongman rhetoric, tough-on-crime policies and tariffs to advance his domestic goals. Noboa imposed tariffs on Mexico shortly after Trump threatened to do the same.
Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue said Noboa has not hidden his intent to align with Trump's priorities. "His imposition of tariffs on Mexico right after Trump announced the same was a clear indication of Noboa's desire to be in lockstep with the U.S. president in style and substance," Shifter said. "It was also arguably politically motivated, taking place right before the election."
In April 2024, police and military raided the Mexican embassy in Ecuador's capital, Quito, to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, who had been granted asylum there. The move, widely condemned as a violation of international law, was a defining moment in Noboa's presidency, showing his willingness to prioritize domestic security concerns over diplomatic norms.
"Domestically, this boosted his popularity," González noted. "It positioned him as someone fighting corruption, particularly what correísmo [the left-wing political movement founded by former President Rafael Correa] represented in Ecuador. Internationally, however, it drew significant criticism."
His government has also drawn attention for its approach to U.S. immigration policy. Ecuadorian journalist Andrés Burbano pointed out that Ecuador has quietly accepted flights of deported migrants, including reports of shackled pregnant women being sent back from the U.S.
"Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld clearly stated in an interview, 'These are Donald Trump's immigration policies and they must be respected,'" Burbano said. "It raises questions about what other U.S. directives Noboa will unquestioningly follow."
A Death Blow to Correísmo?
For much of the past decade, the leftist correísmo movement dominated Ecuador's political landscape. But Noboa's rise, and the emergence of his ADN party, is seen as a turning point.
"If Noboa wins...it would be seen as a critical blow—almost a death blow—to correísmo," Burbano said. "Correísmo has been the strongest political force in the country over the past decade. The emergence of a new party like ADN, which now carries the number of the former PRIAN—the party of Daniel's father—makes it even more symbolic."
However, there are growing concerns about Noboa's approach to power. His critics, including constitutional experts, argue that he has bypassed legal norms and accumulated executive power at an alarming rate. The Constitutional Court recently ruled that several of Noboa's decisions were unconstitutional, fueling fears of electoral fraud—not from the opposition, but from within state institutions.
"It's no secret that in recent months, Noboa has been bypassing some laws. I'm not the only one saying this—lawyers, constitutionalists and experts have pointed it out as well," Burbano, the journalist, said.
The Road Ahead
Noboa is committed to pro-business reforms, with a focus on attracting foreign investment to create jobs and grow Ecuador's stagnant economy. If reelected, he is expected to increase his aggressive approach to tackling organized crime and seek to strengthen relations with the Trump administration.
However, his ability to govern effectively will depend on the legislative elections taking place simultaneously.
"Relations between the legislature and executive in Ecuador have often resulted in gridlock, making progress on key policies difficult and increasing instability," Shifter noted. "If Noboa's ADN party secures a significant bloc, it will facilitate his agenda. If not, he may find himself politically constrained."
Ultimately, the election represents more than just a national contest. It is a referendum on mano dura security policies, on the country's economic trajectory and on the changing political dynamics of Latin America. Noboa's trajectory suggests he could become a key player in a broader shift toward right-wing governance over the region, joining forces with leaders like Argentina's Javier Milei and El Salvador's Bukele.
For Ecuador, the stakes are clear. Noboa has built his presidency on the promise of restoring order, but as violence surges once again, the question remains: Can his Trump-inspired, Bukele-style crackdown bring lasting peace to Ecuador, or will it only deepen the country's crisis?
