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Democrats seem to be of two minds about Donald Trump. They ostensibly plan to promote him as the Republican nominee for president in the belief that President Joe Biden, or any plausible Democrat, will defeat him in the 2024 election. At the same time, they hope to destroy him as the representative of everything bad in American life and foe of everything good. The legal prosecutions against Trump serve both purposes by focusing public attention on him and setting the stage to see him convicted of a crime in a court of law.
This strategy makes a great deal of sense. But it could easily backfire.
There is no question that Democrats have fared well over the least three election cycles by putting Trump on the ballot. He is highly unpopular among the voting groups attached to the Democratic Party. There is little doubt that the FBI raid on his Palm Beach, Florida, home last August was designed by the Biden administration as a means of putting Trump on the ballot for the 2022 midterm elections. That tactic worked, as Democrats across the country ran against Trump and his favored candidates, and fought the election to a draw. The recent indictment by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg has further raised Trump's profile among Republicans, perhaps now assuring that the former president will once again be the party's nominee next year.
Still, that point can be exaggerated. Republicans, with Trump on the ballot, did not lose those elections by landslide margins. In 2018, they held their majority in the Senate, while losing the House of Representatives; in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by a narrow margin, though his campaign was weighed down by scandals, opposition from the news media, and the effects of the coronavirus pandemic; in 2022, the GOP captured a majority in the House of Representatives, while losing several close Senate races. Republicans might have done worse with others at the head of their ticket.
In addition, this is exactly what pundits and Democratic strategists said prior to the 2016 election: Trump cannot possibly win. Hillary Clinton's campaign staff said they wanted Trump as her opponent. The Clinton team celebrated its impending victory on the evening before the election. Republican leaders in Congress denounced Trump, and all but conceded the election to Clinton. But the improbable happened: Trump won. Democrats said he cheated and stole the election. It could never happen again, so they say, with agreement from the pundits and pollsters who were wrong in 2016.
But it could happen again, because the Biden administration has planted several bombshells that could blow up in the course of next year's presidential campaign.
During his campaign in 2020, Biden denounced the Saudi royal family as a "pariah" for its alleged role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, along with other violations of human rights. He said his administration would hold Saudi Arabia accountable by holding up arms sales to the regime and blocking U.S. purchases of Saudi-produced oil. In response, the Saudis rebuffed Biden's pleas last year to ramp up oil production to ease gasoline prices for U.S. consumers. Just last month, in another rebuke to the United States, Saudi Arabia signed a deal arranged by China to normalize relations with Iran. The Saudi regime has now announced a plan to scale back oil production further in a strategy to increase world prices.
Do the Saudis prefer Trump to Biden? It seems like it. If so, the regime might hold back production again, just in time for next year's presidential election. If oil prices reach $115 per barrel in September and October of 2024, as they did in early 2022, Biden will lose the presidential election to Trump or to any candidate the Republicans nominate. His administration has made itself vulnerable to such maneuvers by its policies to restrict production of oil and gas in the United States in the name of environmentalism.
Russia's war with Ukraine is another issue that could cause problems for Biden next year. The United States has effectively declared war on Russia by working with European nations to supply Ukraine with advanced weapons. Biden has denounced Putin as a war criminal, while some in his administration have spoken of regime change in Russia. Recent leaks of sensitive intelligence documents reveal that the U.S. is more deeply enmeshed than it has previously acknowledged in day-to-day military operations in Ukraine.
No one should be surprised if Russia retaliates in some way. Russia has shown in the past that it has the means to stymie Western interests not only by holding back on exports of oil and gas but also by exploiting social media to sow confusion in the United States. Putin may be considering such options in advance of next year's elections. In this campaign he might gain support from China, which is wary of U.S. steps to support Taiwan and other efforts to check its influence in the region.
On the domestic side, Biden and other Democratic leaders promised to speed up reviews of oil and gas permits in exchange for Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.V.) support last year for the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act. After Manchin voted for the act, the administration double-crossed him by torpedoing the permitting reforms, thereby proving to Manchin and his supporters that Biden is an unreliable partner. Manchin is now reportedly considering an independent campaign for president that would undoubtedly peel off centrist voters who might otherwise vote for Biden.
The state of the economy is the greatest risk Biden and the Democrats face next year. They spent wildly when they came into office, increasing federal deficits due to the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, and other measures. Their spending ignited inflation across the economy, causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates from close to zero in 2021 to nearly five percent today. The housing market is already in recession with home mortgage rates today at nearly seven percent, more than double the rates of two years ago. The stock market has fallen between 10 and 20 percent from its highs in 2021. Many economists are predicting a recession to begin later in the year, bringing rising unemployment rates and falling stock prices—while consumer prices continue to increase. A recession in an election year usually means defeat for the party in power.
Rising oil and gas prices, complications in the Middle East, hostility from Russia and China, an independent campaign for president, inflation and rising interest rates, a possible recession in 2024—these are all issues that could explode on President Biden in 2024 and bring about the election of Donald Trump.
Be careful what you wish for—you might get more of it than you expected. That is sound advice, which Democrats ignore at their peril.
James Piereson is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
