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Friedrich Merz may be the new Chancellor of Germany, but there are two others who will be happy after Sunday's elections: Elon Musk and his European party of choice, AfD.
Nationalist party Alternative for Germany, led by Alice Weidel, became the country's second-largest in terms of vote share on Sunday, overtaking the incumbent center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party in just one election cycle. AfD exactly doubled their vote share since the 2021 elections, growing from 10.4 percent to 20.8 percent.
AfD took 152 seats in the Bundestag, Germany's federal Parliament, on Sunday, second only to Merz's center-right coalition of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, which won a combined 208 seats of the chamber's 630 total. The SDP received just 16.4 percent of the vote and bagged 120 seats.
The new German government will be formed by Merz's Union bloc, with Merz as the country's new chancellor. But AfD will be the largest opposition party, gaining access to more speaking time in Parliament and greater control over the legislative process. However, other major parties have all pledged to keep AfD from growing further, meaning they have no coalition partners—a rarity in Germany where the governing bloc is often a partnership between two or more parties.
The AfD's election surge was a reward for its focus on immigration and the war in Eastern Europe, which were two of the most-discussed topics on the campaign trail. It also rewards Musk, who has once again backed the growth of the Right in a major Western election.
Dr. Christian Czymara, a migration expert at the University of Frankfurt, told Newsweek that Musk helped AfD break into the global mainstream, and that their shared views on immigration would now be key points to watch in the new government.
"Elon Musk's involvement contributed to the AfD's growing visibility," Czymara said. "While the AfD is highly unlikely to enter government due to the cordon sanitaire around it, the party has already shaped the election agenda by making immigration the dominant issue. This influence is expected to continue, pushing mainstream parties toward stricter immigration policies, enhancing border controls, and increasing deportations."
Elon Musk and AfD
AfD is somewhat of a pariah in German politics, with no alliances in the Bundestag and explicit condemnation from many other party leaders. Omid Nouripour, a leader of the German Green Party, previously described AfD as "an openly right-wing extremist party," and Conservative Christian Democrat politician Mathias Middelberg blamed them for contributing to a rise in right-wing extremist violence.
Despite this, Musk backed the AfD publicly for the first time in January, speaking virtually at a rally in which he told supporters that they should not feel "guilty of the sins of their parents."
The message mirrored the support Musk has also shown for right-wing parties in the UK, where he has called for a greater defense of traditional values and a rejection of left-wing ideologies.
"It's good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything," Musk told listeners at the rally, less than a month before voters went to the polls.
Dr. Isabelle Hertner, a professor at the Department of European and International Studies at King's College London, told Newsweek that AfD has embraced Musk's endorsement since the event, with party leadership seeing it as vindication for their cultural policies, which include leaving the Euro and returning to the Deutschmark.
They have also called for an end to the "promotion of gender research" and the "freeing of culture from political influence."
AfD's growth has largely been in eastern Germany, where anti-migration sentiment and apprehension over Germany's military support for Ukraine is higher. The party wants to normalize relations with Russia and move toward a peace process and has rejected the idea of a unified European military force.
"AfD's views largely align with those of Elon Musk, so they don't seem to mind his interference in German politics," Hertner said. "He supports the AfD publicly and they see this as a legitimatization of their policies on issues like migration, Russia's war in Ukraine, gender, and other issues."
Both Musk and Vice President JD Vance have turned their eye to Europe in the past few months. At Vance's speech in Munich on February 14, he doubled down on Musk's rhetoric, describing free speech and traditional culture as "in retreat."
He was also harsh on Germany's immigration policy in the wake of the asylum-seeker car attack that injured two dozen people, telling attendees: "We saw the horrors wrought by these decisions yesterday in this very city. How many times must we suffer these appalling setbacks before we change course and take our shared civilization in a new direction?"
Pushing the Needle on Immigration
Immigration was one of the most important issues to German voters yesterday, ranking behind only the economy, housing and trust in the government, according to polling from Gallup.
Germany has taken in an average of 1.7 million immigrants a year since 2020, with post-pandemic numbers reaching highs of 2.67 million a year in 2022. This is higher than the immigration figures for 2015, when 2.14 immigrants entered the country in what was considered a "refugee crisis" for Europe.
Like many European countries, Germany upped migration in the early 2020s in order to support public services in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, those policies have seen backlash from conservatives across Europe, including in the UK, where the long-standing Conservative government was removed in the 2024 election after the "Boriswave," the nickname for the increased immigration named after then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Musk's intervention, which highlighted similar anxieties in Germany, proved to be controversial, where endorsements of this kind are rare.
"Except for the AfD, none of the other major parties responded favorably to Musk's interventions during the campaign, and I do not expect this to change in the immediate future," Dr. Matthias Dilling, a professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin and a co-convenor of the German Politics Specialist Group, told Newsweek.
"It is worth noting that public endorsements by public figures are much less common in German election campaigns than, for instance, in the U.S. This was one of the reasons Musk's endorsement of the AfD triggered such vivid debates."
But Hertner told Newsweek this will have a profound impact on how the new government approaches the issue of immigration. She said: "The next government is under pressure to act with regards to those migrants who have committed violence or who are no longer legally in the country.
"Migration has been a very salient topic during this election campaign, and all parties have recognized the need to respond to people's concerns.
"Still, there are differences between the parties. Merz …[as chancellor] will try to push for harsher measures than the SPD or Greens—as his recent motion in the Bundestag demonstrated."
Merz has said that his new government will permanently reinstate border checks and indiscriminately turn away all irregular arrivals, including asylum-seekers, which indicates a crackdown on immigration of all kinds.
Germany, Russia and the War in Ukraine
The other key issue where Musk overlaps with AfD's progress is European approaches to the conflict in Ukraine, which relies heavily on support from Germany and its allies, as well as the U.S.
Musk has been a vocal critic of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, and has backed U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to normalize relations with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
AfD has a similar view on Russia. Weidel has called for the restoration of "good relations" with Russia and has condemned the current level of German sanctions against the country. Prior to the war, Germany was Russia's largest customer for energy resources, importing a third of its oil, about half its coal and more than half its gas from the country, and moving away from that reliance has been costly.
"We want to have very good relations with our European neighbors," she said, adding: "But we also want to have very good relations with the major powers. This includes Russia."
Hertner said that most parties in Germany rejected this rhetoric, telling Newsweek: "The other parties do not welcome Musk's interventions and are also very critical of Trump's recent meeting with the Putin regime and his comments about Ukraine having started the war. They have criticized Trump publicly for this statement."
However, AfD's criticisms are accepted by a large swathe of German voters, and the party's stance on Ukraine moves the dial closer to a position that helps Musk and the Trump administration normalize the idea of peace with Putin, something that other European powers have been skeptical of.
Outside of Russia, Germany is the largest country in Europe by population, at around 84 million, and holds significant sway over military discussions. If it adopts a more conciliatory approach to Russia, the nuclear members of NATO, the UK and France, which are also Ukraine's most vocal backers, may have to reconsider their approach to the conflict as well.
What's Next For AfD?
Success for the AfD will depend on how the party is able to influence Merz's incoming government regarding immigration and the war on Ukraine.
"Much will depend on the popularity of the new government," Hertner said. "Will they be able to stimulate economic growth, reassure people that migration is under control, and keep the cost of living under control? And what happens in Ukraine?"
Criticisms of government are usually easier for small parties, but as the second-largest political group in the country, AfD could face greater scrutiny from the public, especially if the new Union bloc is able to improve trust in the government.
"For now, it seems the firewall will stay in place, so no formal coalitions and cooperation with the AfD, no matter how big their group in the Bundestag will be. At least that's what Merz has claimed," Hertner said.
"If the public mood in Germany improves, the AfD might no longer be able to benefit from growing resentment and feelings of cultural and economic insecurity. If, however, the new government is unstable and lacks direction and leadership, then the AfD could benefit from the instability over the next years and grow stronger."
Czymara predicted that the party might instead focus on consolidating its grassroots in key regions, aiming to break through the issue of no coalition partners with brute force.
"AfD will likely focus on consolidating its influence by pressuring mainstream parties to adopt tougher immigration and EU policies. Since its long-term goal is to enter government, it will continue to push its agenda based on its electoral success.
"The party may also strengthen its position at the state level, where had even more success, at least in Eastern Germany."
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