Florida's Eroded Beaches Raises Danger of Potential Hurricane Nicole

Not even six weeks after Hurricane Ian hit, east coast Floridians are prepping for another large storm as Subtropical Storm Nicole is moving in the direction of the Sunshine State. Beaches haven't fully recovered from Hurricane Ian and could be especially vulnerable to Nicole's path.

Hurricane Ian hit Florida's southwest coast in late September with Category 4 wind levels. The hurricane stormed through Florida, weakening to a tropical storm before exiting into the Atlantic Ocean where it again strengthened into a hurricane and made second landfall in South Carolina. Subtropical Storm Nicole's track is still uncertain, but it is possible it will make landfall on Florida's east coast, where beaches are still recovering from Hurricane Ian.

National Weather Service meteorologist Kip Bricker told Newsweek that as storm surge passes dune lines, sand is washed away. Coastal impacts from Subtropical Storm Nicole include floodwaters surging past dune lines still recovering from Hurricane Ian damage, especially in lower lying areas.

"Water may be able to get over places where the dunes are still eroded from a month or so ago," Bricker said.

Eroded beaches and dune lines make it easier for floodwaters to rise to the same level, move past the dune line and make it farther up the beach and potentially onto roads. Some beaches may still be recovering from Hurricane Ian damage, especially in lower lying areas, such as Summer Haven in St. Johns County, so flooding may occur more easily with Subtropical Storm Nicole.

"This is probably only going to happen in the most vulnerable areas, where the beaches are very low," Bricker said. "There are beaches that are much more flat, and those dune lines are more impacted."

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipates Subtropical Storm Nicole to be a large storm, potentially categorizing into a hurricane as it progresses near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. NHC warned of dangerous storm surge conditions along Florida's eastern coast.

"Regardless of its exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and potions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the upcoming week," NHC tweeted.

Broadcast meteorologist Jim Cantore shared a video from early October on Twitter depicting a damaged beach with eroded beaches and damaged seawalls and boardwalks.

"File video from early October after Ian [reveals] the devastation to the east coast Florida beaches," Cantore tweeted. "These beaches are extremely vulnerable to a storm like #Nicole through late Thursday."

Bricker said sand restoration varies depending on the local community and its efforts to restore beaches and dune line areas.

Costas Synolakis, a professor of civil engineering at the University of Southern California, told Newsweek on Monday it can take months or years for beaches to recover after a megastorm. If Nicole's path takes the storm across the state, the eastern coast might not be the only area at risk.

"I worry that we will have substantial beach erosion in central west Florida, which may not be reversible," he said.

Update 11/7/2022, 3:58 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comment from Synolakis.