Trump May Cause 'Constitutional Earthquake,' Ex-Clarence Thomas Aide Warns

What's New

John Yoo, a former clerk for conservative Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and the former deputy assistant attorney general, warned on a podcast this week that Donald Trump may cause a "constitutional earthquake" with some of his suggested plans once he takes office.

The legal scholar, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, pointed to the possibility of Trump withdrawing from key treaties with international partners during an interview aired Monday on Puck's podcast Somebody's Gotta Win With Tara Palmeri. Yoo said attempting to withdraw the U.S. from NATO would likely be challenged all the way to the Supreme Court.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump transition team on Wednesday via email for comment.

Why It Matters

During his first administration, Trump said in 2018 that the defense spending goal for NATO should be doubled to 4 percent. He now reportedly wants it to be increased to 5 percent. While on the campaign trail in the lead-up to the 2024 election, he also accused NATO of relying too much on U.S. contributions.

The president-elect has also repeatedly hinted that he may be open to pulling the U.S. out of NATO. He returned to the theme earlier this month during an appearance on NBC's Meet the Press, when he suggested the U.S. could look at leaving NATO if members don't increase their defense spending.

What To Know

NATO was established in 1949 to provide collective military security against the Soviet Union. A key component of the international treaty is Article 5, which states that "an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all." The article requires all members to come to the "collective defense" and assist the attacked nation or nations.

With Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, which is not in NATO, many European members of the alliance have growing concerns that Moscow could target them next. Russia leaders and media pundits have routinely suggested the Kremlin could turn its sights on NATO members, particularly as they continue to provide military aid to Kyiv.

In December 2023, Congress passed a National Defense Authorization Act that aimed to block any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval from the Senate or an act of Congress. While most Republican lawmakers continue to support NATO, as do most Democrats, 46 House Republicans backed a 2023 effort to defund U.S. support for the alliance.

What People Are Saying

Yoo responded to a question from Palmeri about whether Trump could withdraw from NATO without Congress: "The Supreme Court has never ruled, but the lower courts have said that presidents can break treaties. But it's never been done with a really important treaty like NATO. In fact, Congress has tried to stop them. I think Congress has tried to put appropriation riders on defense bills saying you can't pull out of NATO. That would spark an enormous constitutional battle.... If Trump really is going to follow through...that will cause a constitutional earthquake."

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, last year put forward legislation to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, saying at the time: "They are not a reliable partner whose defense spending should be paid for by American citizens. For the better part of the last decade, Germany has contributed only around 1 percent of its GDP to finance NATO obligations, while the United States is paying around 4 percent of our GDP to defend NATO countries."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in July: "The most successful military alliance in human history has shepherded the free world through serious challenges, from nuclear-armed Cold War through vicious terrorist attacks to a new chapter of multipolar competition."

James​​​​ Carafano, senior counselor to the president and E.W. Richardson fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told Newsweek in November: "The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is what is in America's interest. There is no scenario where America is better off without a strong NATO and a free and independent Ukraine. He will seek both.

Why It Matters

It's not clear how Trump will handle the U.S. relationship with NATO after he enters the White House. Many analysts believe that the president-elect largely aims to pressure the members to increase their funding toward their collective defense, as he did with some success during his first term.

At the same time, many fear Trump could be serious about withdrawing from the alliance, as some Republicans would like him to do.