The Expanding Map of Swing States That Will Decide the 2024 Election

Once upon a time, the list of swing states deciding who would become president was a short one.

Ohio has been a traditional decider of presidents, with just three candidates since 1900 ascending to the White House after failing to win it. Florida has been another, while other states, like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, have been constants in the races for president for decades.

Swing states change from election to election, however. And after 2020, the list is longer than it's been in years.

North Carolina, for example, has been considered a battleground after former President Barack Obama's stunning win there in 2008, changing the political calculus for a state no Democrat had come close to winning since 1976. And both major political parties have sunk millions of dollars into winning Georgia in recent cycles, as the political whims of the traditionally red state have come to rest on a knife's edge in recent elections.

Even some districts in Maine and Nebraska—which split their Electoral College votes—have come under heightened scrutiny in recent years as the "every vote matters" math of the college has gained growing importance in campaigns' state strategies.

President Joe Biden did very well with these states in 2020. Of 10 traditional battlegrounds—Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio—in 2020, Biden won seven, flipping a handful of states that Hillary Clinton lost to secure the Electoral College victory that previously eluded the Democratic Party in 2016.

Which candidate has the advantage this time around will depend on intangible factors beyond whose name is on the ticket.

Blue State, Red State Surprises

In 2022, for example, traditionally blue states like New York and Oregon came within single digits of their governors' mansions flipping to Republican control. One year earlier, Republican Glenn Youngkin overcame Virginia's traditionally blue lean to seize victory in the governor's race there.

In recently red-leaning states, like Ohio, Kansas and Kentucky, voters have risen up to defeat Republican-led efforts to enact abortion restrictions favored by grassroots members of the GOP base.

In Kentucky and Mississippi, governor's seats once deemed safely in Republican hands could be under threat in this autumn's elections because of insurgent Democratic support and the political baggage carried by the GOP's leading candidates for governor.

And in Wisconsin—a historic "toss-up" state politically—liberal state Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz won a double-digit victory over conservative Daniel Kelly earlier this year in a race that was considered a referendum on abortion and redistricting policy.

The sheer impact of a federal abortion ban on the ticket in 2024 could prove a boon for Biden's chances at reelection. In states where abortion has been on the ballot so far, Republicans have lost, giving Democrats high hopes that the issue will bring serious electoral gains in 2023 and 2024. Others, however, aren't so sure.

While Democrats in blue and purple states won crushing majorities from voters who backed abortion rights during the 2022 midterms, large shares of abortion-rights voters supported Republicans in red-leaning battlegrounds like Florida and Texas. Ohio was ultimately dominated by Republican candidates like current U.S. Senator J.D. Vance and Governor Mike DeWine. So the abortion issue has its limits when other issues are on the ticket.

"If you're going to have a special election [specifically on abortion], it's going to drive up voters who care specifically about that specific issue," John Feehery, a GOP strategist and former press secretary to ex-House Speaker Dennis Hastert, told Newsweek. "So, you know, people who vote on especially abortion-type of issues are going to turn up higher than people who don't really care as much. I think you saw that in Ohio. I think you saw that in Wisconsin.

"In general elections, Trump really does change the calculus because he brings out a lot of voters who are not on anybody's radar screen on both sides, but especially on the Republican side. So I do expect with Trump on the ballot, Ohio is solidly red," Feehery said.

Biden's popularity (or unpopularity) will likely be an issue in those states, as will issues like the economy—which most polling shows to be a top priority for most Republican and independent voters nationally.

Another recent poll, by Emerson College, found that while voters in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina favor Democrats on major issues like abortion, climate change and gun violence, Republicans hold a narrow edge on education and schools, according to a poll memo by Democrats for Education Reform published July 31.

Winning Toss-Up States

But there are also other intangibles at play that could determine the direction of states still straddling the line between Republican and Democratic.

With Donald Trump the clear front-runner in the GOP nomination race, news coverage of his prosecution for alleged federal crimes—involving efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House—could also have an impact. As could recent headlines suggesting the funds in his already overburdened campaign war chest could be frozen amid an ongoing federal probe into potential criminal wrongdoing.

How the headlines shape voters' attitudes could be a factor in how they vote. It all comes down to whose side gets the voters to turn out—particularly with a president with unfavorable polling numbers.

"I don't think that most Trump voters are going to be swayed one way or the other on [the media coverage of Trump's legal troubles]," Feehery said.

"It might have an impact on independent voters because I think that Biden had got some mileage out of [the] democracy argument with independent voters," he continued. "They swung towards Biden in 2020. And they swung towards the Democrats in 2022. But the other side of that is that, amongst conservative Republicans, they see this as a total overreach, a criminalization of politics. That gets them really energized."

There's also the prospect of a third-party challenge from a No Labels ticket, which is seeking ballot access in several key battleground states. On Thursday, an Arizona judge rejected a lawsuit by the state Democratic Party seeking to bar No Labels from the ballot, clearing the way for a third-party candidacy that experts have told Newsweek will likely hurt Democrats' chances at victory.

Barriers to the Ballot

Then there's voters' ability to access the ballot itself.

In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential elections, 19 states passed legislation tightening voting requirements. They include provisions restricting same-day voter registration, requiring voters to provide a full Social Security number to register, and mandating additional documentation to vote beyond what the federal government requires—all of which critics say were designed to hurt Democrats.

In the battleground state of North Carolina, for example, Republicans in the statehouse are considering state law changes to shorten the length of time absentee ballots (which typically favor Democrats) can be counted, replace same-day registration (which is primarily used by Black voters) with a provisional ballot requirement that includes a mandatory voter identification check, and eliminate a division in the state's Board of Elections from a 3-2 partisan advantage to a 4-4 split.

That move, some critics believe, could lead to chaos in the event of an electoral dispute. Or, as North Carolina Senate President Phil Berger told The News & Observer earlier this year, the matter could be sent to the state's Republican-led Supreme Court to decide.