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From Texas Governor Greg Abbott's battle with the federal government to House Republicans voting to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, immigration remains a hot-button issue among Americans heading toward the 2024 presidential election.
Migrant encounters across U.S. borders exceeded 988,900 in the past three months, with a record-high 2.5 million last year, pushing the issue high up policy priorities and political campaigning.
One viral social media post suggested that already this year, figures from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) showed there have been nearly 1 million border encounters.
The Claim
A post on X, formerly Twitter, by entrepreneur Mario Nawfal, on February 13, 2024, viewed 3.5 million times, said: "2023 ILLEGAL MIGRATION GROWS 10X IN SEVEN YEARS
"2024 SO FAR: 988,819
"2023: 3,201,144
"2022: 2,766,582
"2021: 1,956,519
"2020: 405,036
"2019: 859,501
"2018: 404,142
"2017: 310,531
"Source: US Customs & Border Protection"
The Facts
Nawfal's figures are based on encounters by Border Patrol and the Office of Field Operations during the fiscal year calendar, which runs from October to September. The 2024 figure in Nawfal's post was accurate as of February 12, 2024. The number at the time of publication is 1,231,213.
However, Nawfal did not mention these were fiscal year records. Without that context, it may create the impression he is referring to the 2024 calendar year.
Archived versions of CBP figures show there were 617,865 encounters between October and December 2023.
Subtracted from Nawfal's figure, there have been 370,954 encounters between January 1, 2024, and the time around his post on X.
Newsweek has reached out to Nawfal via Twitter and the CBP via email for comment.
There are other inaccuracies in his post. As noted by fact checkers Snopes, the claim that there has been a "10x" increase in the number of encounters is based on comparisons from differing data sets.
Figures Nawfal quoted from 2017 to 2020 were based on encounters reported only by U.S. Border Patrol, while numbers for 2021 to 2024 were from encounters recorded by Border Patrol and the Office of Field Operations.
Snopes wrote that the true increase between 2017 and 2023, therefore, is six times.
Despite recent record highs, CBP released new statistics this week that showed land encounters with migrants along the U.S.-Mexico border halved in January.
Troy A. Miller, CBP's senior official performing the duties of the commissioner, acknowledged in a press release on Tuesday that "serious challenges" remain at the border while saying that the improved numbers were the "result of seasonal trends, as well as enhanced enforcement efforts by the men and women of CBP and our international partners."
"Southwest border encounters between ports of entry dropped by 50% in January," Miller said. "We continue to experience serious challenges along our border which surpass the capacity of the immigration system."
The Ruling
Needs context.
Nawfal's figures are based on the fiscal year, not the calendar year, which may mislead readers.
Using archived CBP data, the total number of encounters recorded by Border Patrol and the Office of Field Operations since January 1, 2024, subtracted from Nawfal's figure, was 370,954.
FACT CHECK BY Newsweek's Fact Check team
About the writer
Tom Norton is Newsweek's Fact Check reporter, based in London. His focus is reporting on misinformation and misleading information in ... Read more