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Russia may be "setting conditions" to blame Ukraine for a coming "false flag" attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank.
The Ukrainian military claimed on Tuesday that Russia was planning a "provocation" that would take place "in the nearest future," alleging that "objects resembling explosive devices" were recently spotted being placed on the roof of the facility. A Russian nuclear adviser claimed on the same day that Ukraine was planning to attack the plant on Wednesday using "high-precision, long-range weapons."
Ukrainian forces are currently waging a counteroffensive that has seen the country regain control of some of its previously occupied territory nearly 18 months into the Russia-Ukraine war. Combat near the nuclear plant and counteroffensive activities in the area have amplified fears of an explosion or a radiation leak, which could have disastrous consequences for the surrounding area.
An ISW report published on Tuesday night said that Russia was "unlikely to generate a radiological incident" in the near future, while also accusing the Kremlin of engaging in rhetoric that was "part of a Russian wider information operation" designed to paint Ukraine as "irresponsible" and halt the counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia.
"Russian and Ukrainian officials escalated their rhetoric surrounding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 4, but Russia is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the ZNPP including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack," the ISW report states.
"Such provocative Russian statements, and even the possibility of a tangible provocation at the plant, are likely part of a Russian wider information operation meant to accuse Ukraine of irresponsibility at the ZNPP ahead of the upcoming NATO summit and dissuade Ukrainian forces from conducting counteroffensive operations against occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast," it continues.
During his nightly televised address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that military intelligence had discovered "that the Russian military placed items similar to explosives on the roofs of several power units" at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
Zelensky said that the purported explosives may have been placed on the facility as part of an attempt to "simulate an impact on the station" or as part of another "script" by Russia.
"In any case, the world sees, and cannot help but see, that the only source of danger for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is Russia itself and no one else," said Zelensky.
However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Friday that on-site inspectors had failed to discover any explosive materials at the plant despite Ukraine having repeatedly claimed that explosives were being planted by Russia.
Ukraine and Russia have a history of accusing each other of planning "false flag" attacks at the Zaporizhzhia plant, of which Russia took control weeks after the war started in February 2022.
Ukraine said that "intelligence officers believe that the Russians are preparing a provocation" at the facility on August 19, 2022. Russia's Ministry of Defense claimed that Ukraine was planning to carry out a "false flag attack" on the same day. Neither attack happened.
ISW has also suggested that Russia was planning false flag attacks that failed to materialize in the past. In February, the think tank claimed that Russia was planning attacks to drag Belarus into the war and "undermine" the government of Moldova.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries via email for comment.
About the writer
Aila Slisco is a Newsweek night reporter based in New York. Her focus is on reporting national politics, where she ... Read more