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Democratic candidates in three key states have received a boost in the three final battleground state midterm polls from Marist that show President Joe Biden's party has a real chance of clinching major victories.
Marist's polls conducted in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania show Democrats leading in crucial Senate races, though the margins remain particularly tight in Georgia.
The surveys also showed Democratic candidates are favored to win gubernatorial elections in Arizona and Pennsylvania but Georgia's Republican Governor Brian Kemp is on track for re-election.
If the polls are borne out, Democrats could win the three seats that are widely considered essential to control of the Senate and defeat several Republican candidates backed by former President Donald Trump.
The polls appear to run counter to a national trend reflected in a series of recent generic congressional polls showing the Republicans widening their lead over Democrats in voting intentions.
Pennsylvania
The last 2022 Marist poll for Pennsylvania has found Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman leading Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Senate race among definite voters with 51 percent to Oz's 45 percent and 4 percent undecided.
Among registered voters, Fetterman enjoys 50 percent support to the Republican's 44 percent, while 5 percent are undecided.
The graph below shows polling averages from the Pennsylvania Senate race.
The poll was conducted among 1,152 registered voters from October 31 to November 2 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent. The poll surveyed 1,021 definite voters and the margin for error for that group was plus or minus 4 percent.
Marist also found Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro leading Republican Doug Mastriano with 54 percent support to Mastriano's 40 percent among those who say they will definitely vote. Shapiro leads with 54 percent to the Republican's 39 percent among registered voters.
Mastriano has been endorsed by Trump.
Georgia
Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock is leading his Republican opponent, Trump-backed former professional football player Herschel Walker, among registered voters in Georgia.
The Marist poll found the Democrat had 49 percent support compared to 45 percent for Walker with 6 percent undecided. However, the race is tighter among those who say they will definitely vote.
Walker and Warnock are tied when it comes to registered voters on 48 percent each, while 3 percent remain undecided.
The Georgia poll was conducted among 1,168 registered voters from October 31 to November 2 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent. The poll surveyed 1,009 definite voters and the margin for error for that group was plus or minus 4.2 percent.
The graph below shows polling averages from the Georgia Senate race.
Georgia's Senate race may end up being the closest in the nation and the state's law requires a runoff election if no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote, meaning a narrow lead will not guarantee victory on November 8. Undecided voters could be key in this race and their votes could potentially avoid the need for a runoff.
"This is a very close Senate contest in Georgia which may, once again, end up a runoff to determine which party controls the Senate," said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, in a statement on Friday.
Marist's polling indicates Republican Governor Brian Kemp is leading Democrat Stacey Abrams with 53 percent to her 45 percent among definite voters.
He's also leading Abrams among registered voters, with 51 percent to the Democrat's 45 percent.
Arizona
Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is leading his Trump-backed Republican opponent, Blake Masters, among both registered and definite voters in Marist's latest Arizona poll.
Kelly enjoys 50 percent support to Masters' 47 percent with 2 percent undecided and the senator leads among registered voters with 49 percent to the Republican's 45 percent, while a further 5 percent are undecided.
The graph below shows polling averages from the Arizona Senate race.
The Arizona poll was conducted among 1,157 registered voters from October 31 to November 2 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent. The poll surveyed 1,015 definite voters and the margin for error for that group was plus or minus 4.3 percent.
The survey also found Democratic gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs has a slight lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake among definite voters with 49 percent to Lake's 48 percent. Those numbers have moved in Hobbs' favor since September, according to Marist, when Lake led among definite voters with 49 percent to Hobbs' 46 percent.
Hobbs also had a slight lead among registered voters, winning 48 percent to the Republican's 47 percent. Lake previously led Hobbs among this group by 46 percent to 45 percent.
If Democrats can win all three Senate seats and two of the governorships, that will be a significant victory for President Biden's party in what is expected to be a tough midterm elections season.
About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more