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As our country faces one of the most divisive elections of our time, there's no question that democracy is on the ballot this year—but it won't be decided by the presidential race alone. This election cycle, the future of our democracy is in the hands of state legislatures.
No matter who our next president is, we can expect growing threats to our democratic system. If former President Donald Trump wins, we should be prepared for him to empower right-wing extremists in his administration and around the country in state capitals, attempting to deconstruct our democracy as we know it. Meanwhile, even if President Biden wins re-election, we know from experience that Trump will likely declare himself the victor, spread lies about election fraud, and potentially incite more violence.
Conspiracies around election interference and voter fraud have become a main theme for the 2024 election season. Following the Iowa caucus, where Trump won handily, MAGA Republicans spread false claims about election interference in response to Trump losing one county by one vote to Nikki Haley. In March, a swarm of Trump supporters protested the board of supervisors in Maricopa County, Arizona, claiming the elected leaders were illegitimate. At the same time, Republicans have brought dozens of election-related lawsuits, claiming unfair and manipulated election processes nationwide. The threats are already tangible—and we're still five months out from November.
To combat the far right's escalating efforts to undermine free and fair elections over the next decade, Democrats need to secure control of state legislatures. That's why we've been hard at work at Forward Majority identifying the key districts that Democrats need to prioritize to win 2024 down ballot.
The battleground we're monitoring has narrowed significantly, thanks in part to the Trump realignment post-2016 and the Supreme Court's devastating Dobbs decision on abortion that's helping to drive Democrats to the polls. Now, rather than a few battleground states, voters who live in a small sliver of suburban legislative districts will likely decide control of Congress, our next president, and all the rights that fall to state legislatures—voting rights, abortion rights, and protecting democracy from MAGA extremists.
Across Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, there are fewer than 50 state legislative races that will be the backstop to our democracy. In 2022, Democrats won many of these races, taking Democratic majorities in the Michigan and Minnesota legislatures and the Pennsylvania House. This election cycle, Democrats will need to defend wins in these key battleground districts while also working to gain legislative power in Arizona and Wisconsin—and this starts in the suburbs.
At the heart of this fight are the suburban rings around cities like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Detroit, and Milwaukee. The suburban voters in these areas will be the most important voters in America, determining the key state legislative races and serving as the last line of defense to protect our democracy—we cannot overlook their significance and we can't give up the opportunity that exists for Democrats right now in the suburbs.
Despite Nikki Haley recently confirming her vote for Trump, there's still a significant number of never-Trumpers who continued to vote for Haley even after she dropped out of the race, including 20 percent in Arizona's Maricopa County and 19 percent in Pennsylvania's Bucks County—both key suburban counties. Engaging with and turning out these voters, particularly those in the suburban battleground, will be critical for Democrats to win 2024 up and down the ballot, and that's exactly what we're doing.
This year, Forward Majority plans to exceed past investments to ensure that Democrats down-ballot are making new gains in the areas that will decide the election. To that end, we're hyper focused on registering and engaging voters in key suburban legislative districts to build Democratic power and win 2024.
With a clear roadmap, it's time Democrats get to work down-ballot and protect our freedoms from the ground up. State legislatures will serve as the last line of defense against the erosion of democratic norms and ensuring that the voices of the American people are heard. This is a fight we can't afford to lose.
Vicky Hausman is a founder and co-CEO of Forward Majority.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own.
