Final House Forecast Map Predicts Who Will Control Congress

Votes in crucial elections for the House of Representatives are still being counted after Republicans performed less well than was widely expected on Tuesday, with no party yet having a majority.

The GOP still appears on track to take control of the House and the party has won 207 seats so far, while Democrats hold 189 seats with several key races yet to be called.

A total of 218 seats is needed to form a majority and like in the 100-seat Senate, the House majority will almost certainly come down to just a handful of the remaining contests.

Republicans need to win several more competitive races in order to secure a majority and potentially make Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy the next Speaker of the House. Though it seems unlikely that Speaker Nancy Pelosi's party will prevail, the close nature of many ongoing elections means it can't be ruled out.

The final RealClearPolitics (RCP) map projecting the likely results of midterm elections in the House may provide a guide to the outcome of those close races, while live results continue to filter in and maps are updated by CNN, The New York Times and other media outlets that are closely monitoring the counts.

Here are close races where control of the House could be decided.

Alaska

Democratic Representative Mary Peltola is battling to secure a full term in Alaska's single congressional district. She's facing two Republican candidates - former Governor Sarah Palin and Nick Begich - as well as Libertarian Chris Bye.

The election is being conducted under the state's new ranked choice voting system and The New York Times is projecting Peltola will win narrowly with 80 percent of votes counted.

Peltola had 47.2 percent of the vote to Palin's 26.6 percent and Begich's 24.2 percent. It remains to be seen how the race will be affected when either Begich or Palin is eliminated.

RCP ranked the Alaska race as a toss-up and a Republican victory there would be a major win for the party.

Arizona

The race in Arizona's 1st district may go down to the wire, as Democrat Jevin Hodge leads Republican Representative David Schweikert with 50.8 percent to the congressman's 49.2 percent with 73 percent of votes in.

RCP's map showed this race leans to the GOP, but it appears to have been affected by the lack of a red wave this year.

Arizona's 4th district was deemed a toss-up in RCP's analysis and the election there is close, but currently favoring Democratic Representative Greg Stanton, who had 56.9 percent support with 73 percent of votes counted. His GOP opponent Kelly Cooper had 43.1 percent support.

California

California's 13th congressional district could be heading for a very close finish as Republican John Duarte has 50.15 percent of the vote to Democrat Adam Gray's 49.85 percent with just 50 percent of votes in.

RCP rated the district as a toss-up along with California's 47th district, where Democratic Representative Katie Porter enjoys a narrow lead of 50.45 percent over Republican Scott Baugh's 49.55 percent with 58 percent of votes counted.

Meanwhile, Democratic Representative Mike Levin leads in California's 49th district with 51.1 percent of the vote to Republican Brian Maryott's 48.9 percent with 51 percent of votes in.

In the state's 41st district, The New York Times projects a narrow victory for Republican Representative Ken Calvert who is currently behind Democrat Will Rollins.

Though just 37 percent of the votes have been counted, Rollins is leading with 54.2 percent to Calvert's 45.8 percent. RCP rated this race leans GOP.

Colorado

RCP's projection placed Colorado's 8th district in the leans GOP category, but the race is proving close. Democrat Yadira Caraveo leads with 48.28 percent, compared to Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer's 47.86 percent and 3.86 percent for Libertarian Richard Ward.

The final result isn't yet clear, but 93 percent of votes have been counted.

A surprise may be in store in Colorado's 3rd district where Republican Representative Lauren Boebert is narrowly behind her Democratic challenger, Adam Frisch.

Frisch leads with 50.01 percent to Boebert's 49.99 percent with around 95 percent of votes counted. This wasn't expected to be a close race for Boebert, a prominent Republican with a high national profile, and RCP rated the race likely GOP.

Nevada

In Nevada's 3rd district, Democratic Representative Susie Lee has 50.8 percent of the vote with 88 percent of votes in, while Republican April Becker has 49.2 percent and RCP rated this race as lean GOP.

New York

Republicans were hoping to make gains in New York and it appears they may be on track to win in the state's 22nd district where GOP candidate Brandon Williams is leading with 50.7 percent of the vote to Democrat Francis Conole's 49.3 percent.

Those numbers are tight, but around 95 percent of votes have been counted, while RCP rated the race as lean GOP.

Oregon

Another RCP toss-up race is Oregon's 6th district where Democrat Andrea Salinas is leading with 49.7 percent to Republican Mike Erickson's 48.1 percent, while Constitution Party candidate Larry McFarland has 2.2 percent.

Those results are with just 61 percent of votes counted.

Washington

Democratic Representative Kim Schrier leads in Washington's 8th district with 52.6 percent of the vote to Republican Matt Larkin's 47.4 percent with 65 percent of ballots counted.

The district was rated as lean GOP in RCP's projection and it remains to be seen if Schrier will be reelected.

In the state's 3rd district, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez is leading with 52.3 percent to Republican Joe Kent's 47.7 percent with 70 percent of votes counted. The New York Times projects a narrow victory for Kent, while RCP rated the race likely GOP.

Update 11/10/22 08:26 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include a new image.

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