Putin's Latest Tactic to Shake NATO Backfires Spectacularly

Russia has failed to destabilize the frontier region of NATO's newest member, Finland, a blogger linked to Russian intelligence has said, following accusations Moscow is sending asylum seekers to the border crossings between the neighbors.

Helsinki has said Moscow was deliberately stoking a migrant crisis by sending asylum seekers to the frontier from countries in Africa and the Middle East in a "hybrid warfare" tactic. Russia has denied the claims.

Finland, which shares an 830-mile border with Russia, angered Moscow when it joined NATO in April after decades of non-alignment in a move spurred by President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Finland and the U.S. are also finalizing a Defense Cooperation Agreement.

The Telegram channel Cheka-OGPU, which has links with Russian intelligence, said that Russia's Internal Affairs Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev had given the order for migrants to be gathered, given bicycles and stage an "assault on the border."

The post said that Moscow was copying what Belarus did in 2021, when Minsk organized groups of African refugees to cross the border with Poland, sparking an urgent response from Warsaw that included erecting barriers. Russia used a similar tactic towards Finland in 2015.

In recent days, Finnish security forces barred most of the illegal crossings and closed all checkpoints except for the northernmost Raja-Jooseppi crossing. This has forced Russian authorities to settle the migrants in Russia said Cheka-OGPU, which added that Moscow's ploy had "ended in complete failure."

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C. think tank, said on Monday that Russia's attempt to create a migrant crisis at the Finnish border "appears to be failing" due to the Helsinki's response.

"Russia is expected to act and do more when it senses weakness. So had Finland not reacted with resolve, then I'd say that people would expect more to come and maybe worse things to happen," said Arkady Moshes, program director at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs.

"Because the Finnish government reacted with resolve, Russia will feel restrained with undertaking further actions," he told Newsweek.

The border restrictions at seven out of eight crossings which came into force last week will remain until at least December 23. Finland's border authorities said on Monday that two people from Yemen had arrived at the Raja-Jooseppi crossing on bicycles.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said last week that the final border crossing will be closed "if necessary" and that additional unspecified measures may be needed to bolster border security.

"I don't think people (in Finland) would consider it as a done deal and that the story is over," said Moshes. "People expect that Russia may just try harder, because knowing Putin, and knowing that Putin never pulls back, more migrants can still come."

He said there is a different attitude in Finland to a similar border crisis in 2015 and there is agreement in society to have the border closed "for as long as certain threats [are] potentially coming from there."

"Seven years or eight years ago, society would be divided," said Moshes, "but now, "among the political parties, there's basically a consensus."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry and Finland's Interior Ministry for comment.