Five Closest Senate Races That Could Decide 2022 Midterms

As the November midterms approach, the latest polling by FiveThirtyEight shows Democrats currently have about a 2-in-3 chance of holding on to the Senate and repelling the threat of a GOP takeover.

But in at least five states—Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—the Senate race remains tight, with a chance expectations about the November election results could be overturned, potentially determining the fate of the Biden administration, the Democratic and Republican parties, and the future of the U.S altogether.

"In mid-term elections, the party that does not hold the presidency has almost always gained seats in the past several decades," Christopher Phelps, historian of modern American political and intellectual life at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek.

"The House is projected to be lost by the Democrats to the Republicans, in a typical shift. That means the battle for the Senate is key in order that the Democrats be able to have any chance of passing legislation, because loss of both houses of Congress would make the Biden administration impotent."

Here is an analysis of the latest polling in these five battleground states.

Georgia: Herschel Walker vs Raphael Warnock

Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock, a 53-year-old senior pastor who won the seat in a 2021 special election, is "slightly favored" to win the state's Senate seat, defeating his Republican rival Herschel Walker, a 60-year-old businessman and former football star, according to FiveThirtyEight's latest poll, with a small difference between the two nominees.

A Landmark Communications poll conducted between October 15 and 17 shows the two candidates in a tie, while previous polls from the Trafalgar Group, Quinnipiac University and Emerson College have Warnock beating Walker by 46 to 45 percent, 52 to 45 percent and 48 to 46 percent respectively.

"Georgia is one of the most complicated races that pits two African American candidates against each other, one a college football hero who has staked himself out against abortion, but who news reports have alleged paid for a girlfriend's abortion—and the other a Democratic incumbent who is for abortion rights and health care reform," Phelps said.

"This race may be the one that decides the Senate, as Trump-endorsed football star Herschel Walker's personal problems continue with the allegation that he paid for an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion," Jonathan Parker, senior lecturer in American Studies at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek.

"However, Republicans continue to support him, despite his history of domestic abuse, as necessary to take the Senate seat of Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock. This race certainly provided drama, pitting two well-known, Black candidates against each otherwhere and where the Democrat holds a very small lead in polls."

Walker denies the allegation he paid for the abortion.

Nevada: Adam Paul Laxalt vs. Catherine Cortez Masto

Republican candidate Adam Paul Laxalt now has a small lead in polls against competitor Catherine Cortez Masto, after having trailed the Democratic incumbent for weeks between August and October.

FiveThirtyEight's latest poll gives Laxalt a 51 in 100 chance of winning Nevada's Senate seat against Cortez Masto's 49 in 100, but the polling website admits the election in the state is a "toss-up."

"This state is a tossup between Democrat incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto against Trump-backed Republican Adam Laxalt," confirmed Parker, "though the unpopularity of the President and difficult economic conditions make better conditions for the challenger.

"Nevada presents a chance for the Republicans to take a seat back from the Democrats and is too close to call, with inflation being the number one issue on voter minds," said Phelps.

On Wednesday, former president Barack Obama announced he will visit southern Nevada on November 1 to support Cortez Masto and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gov. Steve Sisolak and fend off the threat of a red wave taking over the state.

Former President Donald Trump has already made two visits to Nevada to support Laxalt and GOP gubernatorial candidate Joe Lombardo.

Ohio: J.D. Vance vs. Tim Ryan

"In Ohio a Trumpian candidate, J. D. Vance, is up against a labor-aligned Democrat in a highly interesting race that is getting narrower, but the state tends to go Republican usually," said Phelps, who expects Vance will be the winner against Democratic rival Tim Ryan.

The latest FiveThirtyEight poll supports Phelps' statement, giving Vance a 72 in 100 chance of winning the state's Senate seat against Ryan's 28 in 100.

The two candidates have already faced each other in two very heated debates, where they both denied accusations of being lapdogs for their parties, with Vance saying Trump was only joking when he talked about the GOP candidate "kissing my a**" for endorsement in a newspaper article.

"J.D. Vance, who converted from Republican critic of Trump to rabid supporter, was initially behind in the polls, but has gained a small lead in this conservative state and is thought likely to win against his Democratic opponent, Tim Ryan," said Parker.

Pennsylvania: Mehmet Oz vs. John Fetterman

"In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman, who campaigns in a hoodie and is trying to reach white working-class voters who recently have gone Republican, is facing off against Dr. Mehmet Oz, a TV personality, in what would be a slam dunk for Fetterman if there weren't doubts about his health, since he had a stroke this summer," Phelps said.

The race between Fetterman and Trump-endorsed GOP nominee Oz has been one of the most heated and controversial in the country, with the two candidates making fun of each other—Fetterman calling Oz an outsider to Pennsylvania, and Oz making troubling remarks over the Democratic nominee's health after he suffered a stroke in May.

Latest polls show Fetterman as "slightly favored" to win Pennsylvania's Senate seat. FiveThirtyEight gives Fetterman a 69 in 100 chance of winning the race against Oz, who has a 31 in 100 chance of winning.

"Popular Democrat John Fetterman slightly leads Trump-endorsed, Republican, celebrity TV doctor Mehmet Oz, but polls are tightening amid questions about Fetterman's health while recovering from a stroke," Parker said.

On Wednesday, Fetterman released a note from his doctor saying he is recovering well from the medical emergency which posed a threat to his life.

Wisconsin: Ron Johnson vs. Mandela Barnes

In Wisconsin, FiveThirtyEight forecasts that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson is definitely favored to win over Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes in the November midterms. According to the polling website, Johnson now has a 73 in 100 chance of winning, over Barnes' 27 in 100.

Only a few weeks ago, as of September 30, the distance between the two candidates was much smaller, with Johnson expected to receive 48.6 percent of the vote against Barnes' 46.7 percent.

Kathleen Dolan, distinguished professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and co-editor in chief at the American Journal of Political Science, told Newsweek that it's hard to say how the race will turn out at this point.

"There isn't a ton of public polling on the race and I am not sure whether I want to put a ton of stock in a single finding from the MU poll from last week," she said.

"Among likely voters, Johnson is up in that poll, but among registered voters, the candidates are even. The Barnes campaign did a poll this week that shows them tied."

According to Dolan, the polls might not show a final result. "Senator Johnson has some things in his favor—incumbency, big donors, an ad campaign focused on negative ads against Barnes," she said.

"Barnes has plenty of money, groups running ads against Johnson, the ability to tie Johnson to January 6. This race will depend on who turns out, which isn't a particularly insightful thing to say, but I don't see clear evidence that Johnson is significantly ahead for good."

David Canon, professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, agrees.

"Sen. Johnson clearly has a lead at this point, but the election is going to come down to turnout," he told Newsweek. "If Democrats vote the way they did in 2018 in Milwaukee and Madison, Barnes could still win."

Phelps thinks Barnes made a mistake by focusing his campaign on abortion rights. "Abortion rights is a major issue among women voters, but Barnes, by focusing on that to the exclusion of inflation and the economy, may have made a major strategic error and has slipped in the polls," Phelps said.

Why Do the Results of These Senate Races Matter?

"Control of the Senate is absolutely crucial for the Biden presidency as well as the longer-term prospects for the Democratic Party," Parker said.

"President Biden needs the approval of the Senate for all major political appointments to his administration and, most importantly, to appoint any federal judges to the district, appellate, and Supreme Court. The biggest legacy of the Trump administration was the large number of judges he appointed, roughly equal to both terms of the Obama administration. The Democrats really need Biden to be able to appoint judges to counter this shift, but that will largely come to an end if the Democrats don't control the Senate."

But the midterms also represent a chance for the Republicans to take back the House, "to have control over the writing of legislation and budgets," Parker said.

"Biden would have to use his veto power, a very blunt instrument, as his only leverage over Congress. It also means they can stop judicial appointments, particularly any Supreme Court vacancies, in the hopes of retaking the presidency in 2024. This will be a huge obstacle to the Biden presidency accomplishing any further lasting policy changes. The stakes are high for both sides, but the Democrats have much more to lose if they fail. Holding the Senate will simply maintain the status quo for them, but losing it would be disastrous."