Florida Map Shows Hurricane Idalia's Massive Storm Surge

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New maps showing storm surge predictions from Hurricane Idalia in Florida have begun to circulate online, with some calling the conditions life-threatening.

By Tuesday, Idalia had strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane, with some models predicting that it could reach Category 3 by the time it makes landfall. On its current path, the storm is expected to hit Florida's Gulf Coast by Wednesday morning, with the center predicted to pass over the Cedar Key region to the north and heavy impacts felt as far south as Tampa Bay. The storm's development has been spurred on by unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, an effect of climate change.

On Tuesday morning, the Weather Channel took to X, formerly Twitter, to share a map of potential storm surge levels along the Florida coast, if the peak surge occurs at high tide. Storm surge occurs when ocean levels rise and push inland, posing potential flooding threats to those close to the coast.

"Peak storm surge from #Idalia is now expected to be 10-15 feet along the Big Bend," the Weather Channel's post read. "This is a life-threatening situation. Heed all warnings."

As the outlet noted, the most severe potential surge is predicted in the Big Bend region, the area where Florida's Gulf Coast curves west into the panhandle, where the center of Hurricane Idalia is expected to pass over. There, surge levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet.

Map Shows Hurricane Idalia Storm Surge
People ride a bicycle through a flooded street in Havana, Cuba, on August 29, 2023, during the passage of Tropical Storm Idalia. The storm strengthened into a hurricane Tuesday and forecasters expect it to become... Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty

Moving away from the Big Bend in either direction, projected surge levels taper off. Across the Tampa metropolitan area, surges could reach as high as 6 to 9 feet, with some regions further south reaching 4 to 7 feet. Down near Key West, the southernmost point in the state, surges of 1 to 3 feet are predicted.

On the other side of the state, the Atlantic coast in the Jacksonville region could also see surges of 1 to 3 feet, with slightly higher levels predicted further north near Charleston, South Carolina.

"The State Emergency Response Team is currently activated to a Level 1 and actively monitoring weather impacts from Hurricane Idalia, including storm surge," the Florida Division of Emergency Management told Newsweek in a statement. "Currently, the NHC [National Hurricane Center] is projecting up to 16 feet of life-threatening storm surge in some areas – that is enough to cover a home. Throughout the approach of this storm, we have communicated the importance of heeding all local evacuation orders and the importance of seeking higher ground to avoid floodwaters."

Taking to X for his own post, Jimmy Patronis, Florida's chief financial officer and state fire marshal, urged residents to take the storm surge threats seriously.

"They're looking at catastrophic storm surge for #Idalia along the coast," Patronis wrote. "The storm is expected to produce surge of 15 feet [that's above land]. If your local officials call for an evacuation, you need to listen. Don't play games with your life. This is serious."

In a growing number of Florida counties, areas closest to the coast at an elevated storm surge risk, have seen mandatory evacuation orders issued.

Updated 08/30/2023, 7:48 p.m. ET: This article was updated with a statement from the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

About the writer

Thomas Kika is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in upstate New York. His focus is reporting on crime and national politics. In the past, he has also focused on things like business, technology, and popular culture. Thomas joined Newsweek in 2021 and previously worked at the International Business Times. He is a graduate of the University at Albany. You can get in touch with Thomas by emailing t.kika@newsweek.com. Languages: English.


Thomas Kika is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in upstate New York. His focus is reporting on crime and national ... Read more