Florida's Population Makes Major Shift

A slowdown in the pace of the explosive population growth that has characterized Florida over the past few years could put the state's housing market in a "vulnerable" position, experts say, and curtail its economic growth.

Why It Matters

With its sunny weather and relatively low taxes, the Sunshine State is a popular destination for both those moving to the U.S. from outside the country and Americans seeking to relocate to more affordable, more livable cities. Over the past few years, Florida has consistently been one of the fastest-growing states in the union, together with Texas.

The state's growing population has fueled its economic growth, which in 2024 outpaced that of the country, according to data from the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Forecasting. However, the pace of this growth has started to slow down over the past two years, suggesting that the Sunshine State won't be able to rely on these positive dynamics for much longer.

What To Know

Florida's population growth, according to Stefan Rayer, population program director at the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), has been on an uptrend for many years since experiencing historically low growth during the Great Recession in the late 2000s.

This phenomenon was accelerated by the pandemic, when the rise of remote work allowed many out-of-state Americans to relocate to Florida, where they pushed up demand for housing and home values.

"That was a record [year] for Florida's housing market, and helped cause the home price boom we saw after the pandemic, when values went up over 60 percent in a five-year span," Nick Gerli, real estate analyst and CEO and founder of Reventure, told Newsweek.

The end of the health emergency and return-to-office orders put a damper on this influx of out-of-state newcomers, but saw an uptick in international migration as people started traveling again.

Between 2019 and 2022, the state added an estimated 184,889, 239,914, and 547,363 residents each year within this time frame, according to data from Washington-based think tank Brookings.

But after reaching that peak between 2021 and 2022, which put Florida's growth slightly ahead of Texas, making it briefly the fastest-growing state in the country, the number of new residents started dwindling. Between 2022 and 2023, the state added 525,566, while between 2023 and 2024 it added 467,347.

Of these 411,322 new residents were added through immigration, while 64,017 were attributable to domestic migration. Natural increase in the state's population (births v. deaths) was negative, at -7,321.

"That demographic boom is reversing, leaving Florida's housing market in a vulnerable state," Gerli said.

"Florida saw a surge of buyer demand during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inventory levels could not keep up with this influx of demand, resulting in scarce for-sale options and soaring home prices," Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, told Newsweek.

"Today, a few years out from this market shock, the Florida housing market is searching for balance. Inventory levels returned to and even exceeded pre-pandemic levels in much of the state, and home prices have fallen, but remain more than 30 percent higher than pre-pandemic."

By any standard, the numbers of new residents moving to the state still indicate that Florida is still a very attractive destination. But the data show without a doubt that the curve of the state's population growth is pointing downward, and experts think it might be hard for Florida to turn things around.

Rayer told Newsweek that it is too early to say for sure if Florida's population boom is fizzling out, but said there are "some indications that this seems to be the case." Domestic migration, the movement of out-of-state U.S. residents relocating to Florida, has significantly slowed down.

"If the rebound in international migration reverses, then overall population growth will slow down substantially. But there is great uncertainty about what will happen," Rayer said.

"Florida's short-term projections get determined at the Demographic Estimating Conference that is held several times a year in Tallahassee. At the last meeting in February, the conference did not adopt a new short-term forecast, because of the uncertainty surrounding federal and state immigration policies and the lack of data to model the magnitude of the likely impacts," he explained.

"We'll have another conference next month to revisit the forecast. Population growth has been above the historical average for many years now, and it would not surprise me if there was slower growth in the near future."

For Gerli, an outright shrinking in the state's population could occur as soon as in 2025, "as the three components of population growth (natural increase from births-deaths, domestic migration, and international migration) are all trending in the wrong direction for Florida," he said.

"It's imperative that Florida's housing market becomes more affordable for the state to get back on the growth track it was prior to the pandemic."

While international migration remains strong, Gerli said, it "is likely to drop significantly in 2025 due to a massive decrease in border crossings under the Trump administration. Moreover—international migration could go negative if deportations continue."

A Graying Florida

Since 2020, deaths have outnumbered births in Florida. While this number was likely linked to the higher number of fatalities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, this trend has not been reversed in the years following the end of the health emergency.

"The state has been on a longer-term trajectory toward negative natural change for many years. This has to do with the aging of the population," Rayer said.

"Florida has one of the oldest populations of any state, and consequently as this population ages the number of deaths will increase."

This does not imply that the state's population will decline, the expert said.

"Some of the fastest-growing counties in the state have recorded more deaths than births for a while now, yet they are still growing rapidly due to migration," he explained.

"So long as in-migrants [in this case, U.S. residents permanently relocating to Florida] from other states and from abroad sufficiently outnumber out-migrants, the state will continue to grow," Rayer concluded.

"In that sense, the implications of natural decrease are quite different for a fast-growing state such as Florida than for many of the states in the Northeast and Midwest that also have older populations but are not attracting as many newcomers. But the gradually increasing number of deaths due to the aging of Florida's population will create a drag on growth in the years to come," he added.

Gerli described this decline in births in Florida as "problematic for a local housing market and economy, as organic population declines will decrease the demand for goods, services, and housing," he wrote on X.

"Something like this has happened in countries like Japan and Italy, and the result was declining home values and stagnating wages over multiple decades."

Showing The First Cracks

Rayer said that the recent slowdown in housing sales in Florida could be a result of the state's smaller population growth. "If international migration slows, as seems probable, the state will likely experience a period of slower growth," Rayer said.

"The migration data from the Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service [IRS] always have a lag, so it'll be a while for any slowdown to show up in the data. More up-to-date indicators such as moving company reports, or driver's license exchanges, are based on small samples and tend to be only tangentially related to population change," he added.

"The general outlook is for slower growth, but to what extent growth will slow down is still unclear at this point."

Gerli found in these data that some of the housing markets in Florida that are struggling the most right now are the ones with the oldest populations and biggest organic population losses.

"Over the last year, the biggest value drops are -8.8 percent in Punta Gorda (median age of 61), -7.1 percent in Cape Coral-Fort Myers (median age of 49), and -6.8 percent in North Port-Sarasota (median age of 53)," he said.

"There's a lot of estate sales now hitting the market in these areas, and limited local growth to absorb them. At the same time, migration has slowed tremendously, leaving a vacuum in demand," he added.

According to Gerli, Florida will continue experiencing drops in home values and rents in response to the slowdown in population growth, making it a "poor housing market to invest in."

The only way for the state to correct the situation, he said, is to "allow home values and rents to go down in response to the drop in domestic migration and impending drop in international migration" and "try to find some way to prioritize family formation and childbearing."

"Both slower migration and a shrinking, aging population will have the effect of lower buyer demand," Jones said. "This means that home prices are likely to ease further, helping Florida become more affordable," she explained.

"High insurance costs and the ever-present risk of climate-related events in parts of the state could deter buyers, but more affordable housing could help balance the market."

For Nadia Evangelou, National Association of REALTORS (NAR) senior economist and Director of Real Estate Research, the changes experienced by the Florida housing market are not necessarily all negative.

"Growth has moderated in Florida compared to the record migration during the pandemic, but it's still strong. The state is gaining people at a healthy pace," she told Newsweek.

"This shift gives the housing market a chance to rebalance. In many markets, home prices are stabilizing, inventory is recovering and we're seeing a return to more sustainable conditions."

What Happens Next

According to Gerli, Florida could become the stage for what the rest of the country is bound to experience later on—the so-called "Silver Tsunami," a term that refers to the deep social and economic changes expected with the aging of the U.S. population.

"Forecasts from Fannie Mae show that on a national level, the aging of baby boomers from their homes will really start accelerating in 2030," he said.

"But Florida is ahead of this curve and likely feeling the effects now. I could see a situation where home values in Florida correct over the next 3-4 years, and then stabilize and don't grow for another 4-5 years due to the influx of inventory that will hit the market from the generational aging out of Florida's homeowners," he added.

Evangelou believes that Florida's aging population could reshape the housing market, boosting options that are more suitable to senior residents. "We may see a shift in what types of housing are most in demand," she said. "An aging population, for example, could drive interest in downsized homes, accessible designs and retirement-focused communities."

Jones think that "ample housing options that are affordable for local incomes and for buyers on a fixed income" will be key to sustained housing demand in Florida.

Demographer William H. Frey, Senior Fellow with Brookings Metro, told Newsweek that much will depend on the impact of the Trump administration's on immigration, which in 2024 was the biggest component of Florida's population gain.

"The president wants to deport a lot of people and we don't know what he wants to do with legal immigration. But that's going to have a big impact on places like Florida if there's a drastic decline in immigration and a lot of deportations," he said.

Another factor that could change in the coming decade is Florida's status as a retirement haven.

"Florida has been attracting a lot of seniors for retirement migration. That's important, but eventually the Baby Boom is going to peter out," Frey said.

"The next generation comes in, which is a little smaller, and that won't be as big a lift for the state," he added. "And then who knows what happens with the country's position toward Social Security and Medicare. Maybe people would have difficulties making long-distance moves at that age. But that's far into the future, I don't think we can predict that accurately."

For Rayer, Florida's demographic future is still wide-open. "It could go in several directions, depending on the attractiveness of the state as a destination for in-migrants and for the population already living here," he said.

"Much also depends on the types of migrants that come to Florida. Domestic in-migrants include many retirees while migrants from abroad tend to be younger," he said.

"Housing has become more expensive, but that is the case in many other parts of the country as well. The rising costs to insure a home will create challenges, since it makes living in Florida less attractive. The state is also uniquely vulnerable to hurricanes, and climate change and sea level rise could at some point tip the balance," he added.

"While there have been ups and downs in population growth over the years, Florida has experienced rapid growth for a long time and many people expect that to continue indefinitely," Rayer said.

"Our medium- and long-term projections imply slower growth in the decades to come, mainly due to the increasing drag from natural decrease. But a wide range of outcomes is possible."