Can Gavin Newsom Beat Ron DeSantis? Here's What Polls Show

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and California Governor Gavin Newsom are set to face off in a debate Thursday, sparking questions about what a hypothetical presidential race between the two could look like.

DeSantis is currently running in the GOP presidential primary. Although he was once viewed as the Republican with the greatest chance of taking down former President Donald Trump, his poll numbers have staggered as the Iowa caucuses inch closer. Newsom, on the other hand, signaled he wouldn't enter the presidential race so long as President Joe Biden is running, even as polls lead to questions from some Democrats about whether Biden is the strongest candidate to lead the party in the 2024 election.

The debate between the two governors, both of whom have been touted as their party's next generation of leadership, will air on Fox News at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday and be moderated by Sean Hannity. Fox News has said the goal of the debate is to explore their "vastly different approaches" to governing.

DeSantis' embrace of right-wing social issues including LGBTQ+ rights and the COVID-19 pandemic propelled him to national prominence, while Newsom has passed a series of more progressive social policies, including a sweeping climate change bill and the expansion of reproductive rights in the state.

Ahead of the debate, two polls showed DeSantis leading Newsom in a hypothetical matchup.

Ray La Raja, co-director of UMass Poll and a professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told Newsweek that DeSantis has been in the news more due to his presidential campaign, so he likely benefits from the attention in these polls. Newsom, on the other hand, is not currently running a campaign.

He noted that Newsom has several strengths as a candidate, including governing a large, diverse state, his fundraising skills and his ability to connect with the Democratic base on social issues. DeSantis, he said, may be able to better connect with working class voters, who have shifted toward Republicans in recent cycles, on these social issues.

"Additionally, Newsom embodies California in both his style and politics," he said. "How will that play with Midwestern voters who are suspicious of San Francisco politicians who hang out in wine country? I don't think DeSantis will have to confront that image problem."

Meena Bose, the executive dean of Hofstra University's Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek DeSantis should be viewing the debate as how he can effectively communicate to people in early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. She explained the debate, while not an official presidential debate, will touch on significant issues of governance that will have key implications for the 2024 election.

'Hard to Say What This Means'

Early polls of the hypothetical matchup are important but not necessarily predictive, Bose said. It will be difficult to draw a lot unless they run against each other.

"When you have one person who's a declared presidential candidate and another who is not, it's very hard to say what this means," she said.

A YouGov poll that surveyed 1,000 U.S. citizens from November 20 to 27 found DeSantis with a one-point lead over Newsom, though many voters say they are not sure who they would support in this matchup.

DeSantis won support from 32 percent of the poll's respondents, while 31 percent said they would vote for Newsom. Five percent said they would vote for another candidate, 14 percent said they were not sure who they would vote for and 19 percent said they would not vote.

This poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek these polls show the country remains divided "pretty evenly," meaning each candidate's particular messages and personality types will be critical to any head-to-head matchup.

He noted that Newsom lacks name recognition from less attentive voters, and that his challenge in a general election will be establishing himself as not part of the Democratic Party's more progressive wing.

"But also bear in mind that much of DeSantis's press in recent months has been negative, that he's struggling to mount a real challenge to Trump, so if he were the nominee, there's also room on his side to boost his own numbers," he added.

David Barker, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University in Washington, D.C., also told Newsweek that the polling difference likely has to do with name recognition, as well as partisanship. He said that while Newsom is a "telegenic and articulate progressive candidate" who presides over one of the largest economies in the world, he is also "every conservative's stereotype of a "limousine liberal."

"He epitomizes the kind of Democrat that many people in Red America resent," Barker said.

A J.L. Partners poll conducted for The Daily Mail in September found DeSantis leading by 4 percentage points. Forty-three percent of respondents said they would vote for DeSantis, while 39 percent said they would vote for Newsom.

Still, seven percent of voters remained unsure of who they would vote for, and 11 percent said they would not vote, according to the poll. This poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 15 to 20, and the margin of error wasn't published.

Newsweek reached out to DeSantis' campaign and Newsom's political team for comment via email.

Details about what topics will specifically be covered in the debate remain unknown, but Hannity previously said he plans to stay out of their way as they debate.

The debate sparked speculation that Newsom may run for president, but he is not expected to launch a primary challenge against Biden. Instead, Biden is facing primary challenges from author Marianne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips, of Minnesota, but he remains the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination.

Trump, meanwhile, also holds a substantial lead over his Republican rivals. A new Emerson College poll found him winning support from 64 percent of Republican primary voters. Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley had 9 percent, while 8 percent of voters said they would back DeSantis.

That poll surveyed 662 likely voters from November 17 to 20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Update: 11/29/2023, 3:16 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Barker.