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Organizers in the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom, including the Republican Governors Association and the leader of the grassroots group that led signature gathering, said they will not get involved in candidate endorsements.
In about nine months, recall supporters gathered more than 2.1 million signatures to qualify a recall election for the ballot. Organizers say they'll focus on trying to convince voters to oust Newson, avoiding picking sides in the fight between GOP candidates.
It's expected that enough of the signatures will be verified by election officials next week to qualify the recall for a ballot. If verified, the ballot will ask voters: Should Newson be recalled? Who should replace him?
"We're opening the door, that's all we're doing," Anne Dunsmore, a consultant for Rescue California, a committee that plans to raise money, run TV ads and conduct polling for the pro-recall campaign, told the Associated Press. "And if we don't succeed, it doesn't matter what anybody else does."
For more reporting from the Associated Press, see below.
The GOP constitutes just one-quarter of voters in California, and with no Arnold Schwarzenegger-like candidate who is immediately recognizable to voters, it's an uphill climb to attract the independents and Democrats needed to recall Newsom while keeping Republicans united. A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found that just 40% of Californians support recalling the first-term governor.
"If this is simply branded as a Republican effort the likelihood of success is very slim," said Tim Rosales, a Republican consultant who recently left his job as campaign manager to John Cox, a businessman who lost to Newsom in 2018 and is running again.
Beyond Cox, the top Republicans in the race so far are former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and ex-U.S. Representative Doug Ose, who last held office in 2005. Neither is close to a household name, though Faulconer has been barnstorming the state to raise his profile.
The closest thing to Schwarzenegger this time might be reality TV star and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner, who has said she might enter the race. She is a longtime Republican but has never sought elected office.
Stephen Puetz, the campaign manager for Faulconer, said if people are waiting for another Schwarzenegger, "they're going to be waiting for a long time."
Faulconer's team said he fits the mold of a Republican who can win in a Democratic state, like Governor Larry Hogan in Maryland or Charlie Baker in Massachusetts. He was elected mayor twice in San Diego, the eighth-largest city in the country by population and a place where Democrats outnumber Republicans.
"It's a long race. Everyone thinks of it as short, but it's not that short," Puetz said, arguing that Faulconer has plenty of time to boost name recognition and energize voters.
The California Republican Party hasn't chosen a favorite yet, but Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson said an endorsement will come before the election, expected in the fall.
"If we can all get in agreement on a single candidate, I think it works better for all of us," she said in an interview with AP. "I'm hopeful that we find that candidate that can unite us all and say: 'This is the best chance we have at winning.'"
The votes on the second question will only be counted if a simple majority wants to remove Newsom. Then the candidate with the most votes becomes governor regardless of whether they top 50%.
Dunsmore said she envisions Rescue California and the partner committee run by Orrin Heatlie, the retired county sheriff's sergeant who launched the recall petition, appealing to independent voters and others who might be skeptical of party structures, while the parties focus on turning out the Republican base.
Heatlie, meanwhile, is skeptical of any national party involvement, calling the Republican Governors Association's creation of a political committee a "money grab." And any endorsement of a candidate by the official party could serve to alienate grassroots activists.
But Republicans will be in a stronger position to get voters to say "yes" on the first if there is a compelling choice to replace him, Patterson said. The state GOP hopes to pick a candidate in the next few months, and she is looking for someone that can build a statewide organization, raise lots of money and has support from other Republican elected officials throughout the state. The majority of Republican state lawmakers already endorsed Faulconer.
"What I think Californians don't want is Gavin Newsom Lite, they want true, bold, different leadership and that's what we'll be focusing on," she said.
Much of the voter anger at Newsom was fueled by his handling of the coronavirus. But conditions in the state are vastly improved from the start of the year, when California was the epicenter for the country and most of the state was locked down.
For now, Democrats are strongly united behind Newsom. In recent weeks, leaders from Black, Latino, Jewish and LGBTQ political groups have held news conferences supporting Newsom, and many prominent Democrats have said they will not run against him.
Republicans' best hope may be that Newsom makes another blunder like his November decision to attend a lobbyist's birthday party while urging residents to stay home, said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. Photos of a maskless Newsom sitting close to others at the party infuriated Californians and spurred people to sign recall petitions.
"The Republicans can't win it," Pitney said. "But Gavin Newsom can lose it."
