Glenn Youngkin's Bubble Just Burst

Virginia Democrats swept Tuesday's legislative elections, dealing a sharp blow to Governor Glenn Youngkin and his fellow Republicans.

Hours before the polls closed, Youngkin had predicted that Republicans would hold the House and flip the Senate.

But Democrats flipped the House of Delegates and held the majority they've had in the Senate since 2020, meaning they will have more power to thwart Youngkin's policy agenda.

It amounts to a massive setback for Youngkin, viewed as a rising star in the Republican Party after successfully tapping into parents' frustration on education issues to win Virginia's gubernatorial race in 2021.

Youngkin, who cannot seek a second consecutive term as governor as the state's constitution bars it, has been touted by some as a potential late entrant in the Republican primary race.

He had not ruled out a 2024 bid in recent interviews.

A spokesman for Youngkin directed Newsweek to the governor's press conference on Wednesday.

"I'm a little disappointed, to be clear," Youngkin said of the election results. Asked by reporters if he was still considering a White House run, Youngkin repeated his typical response, saying he remains "focused on Virginia."

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek that the result was "a double whammy for Youngkin."

"He hoped and expected to win both houses of the legislature, and made the campaign all about himself—perhaps a reasonable tactic," Sabato said. "But he ended up in a worse place than before. Now the second half of his one, four-year term will be served as a lame duck with little influence in the General Assembly.

"Moreover, he'd been depicted as the answer to GOP prayers, a politician who had converted blue Virginia to red or at least purple. That was his ticket to the big leagues. It's gone, obviously. There's always 2028, though."

Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, U.K., told Newsweek that while the results in Virginia "were definitely a jab at Youngkin," they "say very little about the prospect of his future political ambitions."

Gift said: "The forces that led to the Democrats' victory almost certainly had to do more with national political trends—especially the huge headwind for the GOP that is still the abortion decision—than anything about Youngkin himself."

Recent polls "have shown that Youngkin maintains positive approval splits among Virginia voters, suggesting that his 'Trump in khakis' appeal is still playing reasonably well with a good chunk of Virginia," Gift added.

"Four years is a lifetime in politics. Given Trump's commanding lead in the polls, Youngkin almost certainly made the right decision politically by punting on 2024, and instead gearing up for a potential 2028 run for the White House."

Democrats and others have said Tuesday's election results are a clear rebuke of Youngkin and his policies.

"The Senate Democratic Majority showed today that it stands with the majority of Virginians, and Glenn Youngkin overreached with Virginia voters to try to become a presidential candidate," Senate Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Scott Surovell said in a statement.

Democrats in the state had campaigned on protecting abortion rights, while many GOP candidates in competitive districts backed Youngkin's proposed 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.

In a statement, Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus Chair Mamie Locke said: "It's official: there will be absolutely no abortion ban legislation sent to Glenn Youngkin's desk for the duration of his term in office, period, as we have thwarted MAGA Republicans' attempt to take total control of our government and our bodies."

Dave Rexrode, the chairman of Youngkin's political action committee, said the group would fully assess where things stand Wednesday morning.

"We had hoped for a stronger outcome this evening but are proud of the effort all of our candidates put in to these extremely competitive districts," Rexrode wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Others took to social media to say the election results all but certainly kill any plans Youngkin may have had to enter the 2024 race for the GOP nomination, which former president Donald Trump is leading.

"Democrats have now clinched the 51st seat in the Virginia House of Delegates races, retaking the House, and cornering GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin—all but ensuring he won't be able to run for President this cycle," epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding wrote on X.

Political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen wrote: "Tonight is an absolute embarrassment for Glenn Youngkin. He ran on his record and Virginia responded by not only holding the Senate for Democrats but also FLIPPING the state House from red to blue. His legacy is failure."

Update 11/9/23, 8:10 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to add comment from Larry Sabato and comment from Glenn Youngkin's press conference.