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Rob Grover's family has been working hard to survive in western Wisconsin since 1852. Farming rich black dirt in a valley east of the Mississippi, they raised apples, then chickens. During the Depression they ran a quarry, literally digging rock out of their land to make it.
So don't tell them how to vote.
"We're kind of used to figuring stuff out on our own," Grover, 37, said. "We can kind of smell BS."
Today, the survival of the GOP hinges on the independent streak of rural voters in places like this. Such areas delivered Republicans their largest gains in battlegrounds nationwide, as rural voters trended Republican and spiked in turnout for former president Donald Trump, but they're not the partisans their caricature suggests. Survey the data and talk with voters long enough—seasoned conservatives and elusive Obama-Trump converts alike—and you'll realize that the GOP could put itself in danger of one day completely losing a conservative base less tied to ideology than either party understands.
Call it the risk of rural revenge, if Republicans fail to face facts. This is a longer-term challenge than that of finding success in this year's midterms, as Republicans are likely to do well overall, and dominate rural areas regardless. But Republicans' short-term success in rural areas—like Wisconsin farm country, where I'm from—can distract from the need for a long-term rural policy agenda that can outlast the appeal of Trump, or any one personality. Such an agenda will be crucial whenever Trump leaves the stage, and could even replace the GOP's dependence on rural outrage that's driving away suburbanites.
That makes rural turnout this November—the first with Trump neither on the ballot nor in the White House to drive it—an initial test of the GOP's challenges to come.
To be clear, the GOP's dilemma runs far deeper than maintaining Trump's base—it's about voters who trended red over two decades of issues, and could turn apathetic even if Democrats never regain their rural footing. Grover's Trempealeau County is among the dozens of red counties that remained competitive for Democrats as recently as former president Barack Obama, even as voters there swung Republican down ballot for years. Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst for Inside Elections, noted America's most divided battlegrounds from 2014 to 2020—Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina—are rural states.
"This is what is keeping Republicans afloat," Rubashkin said.
Pollsters who study the rural vote, like Charles Franklin of Wisconsin's Marquette University, agree it's neither a straight partisan vote, nor a mushy middle—but rather sometimes quite conservative, and sometimes surprisingly non-ideological. Some are like Grover, who grew up among conservative Democrats and once ran for office as one, and then backed Trump in 2020 as his small government and pro-life values faded among Democrats. Others have long voted Republican, but remain fiercely independent.
Take Mary Litviak. She shifted Republican in the '90s, supported President George W. Bush and Trump, and is a consistent conservative. But she's also worried about funding for water lines beneath the streets of rural Lone Rock, where as a village board member she hears from constituents regularly. To her, state and federal capitals are faraway places where Republicans and Democrats alike cave to special interests.
"If you say you're gonna do something, follow through and get it done," she said.
Those words may offer a litmus test for a long-term rural agenda—issues where candidates up and down the ballot can get results—even as pundits argue over what's driving national results in November. Chat with rural voters, from farm country to the Northwoods, and you'll hear all the hot buttons, from COVID restrictions, to cultural issues, to immigration. This cycle, the economy and crime have been added to the list. But stick around and you'll find the same voters talking roads and waterlines—not because of cable news, but because a defunct bridge might be the only way into town.
There's no doubt Republicans will weigh which of today's cultural issues are winners and losers, but the long-term play is identifying issues the party can impact on the federal, state, and local levels. The economy, crime, and infrastructure exemplify the opportunity, and the challenge, of making a real difference for rural voters.
Blaming Democrats for inflation gets rural applause, but reducing costs requires deep reform (tax, regulatory, and energy), and wages won't go up without fostering durable local industry. Addressing crime means stopping big-city violence from spreading, but also getting drugs out of communities. Meg Ellefson, a central Wisconsin conservative radio host unafraid to criticize soft-on-crime policies, said that requires more compassionate addiction treatment, too.
"There's got to be something we can do about it," said Ellefson, who like so many has dealt with the impact of addiction on her family.
Infrastructure, meanwhile, presents its own problem: how to pay for it. That spotlights a broader battle of ideas within the conservative movement. Oren Cass of American Compass—a group focused on how conservatives can deliver for the American worker—says conservative policies should support "productive markets" that raise wages and spread prosperity, instead of just grow.
"The lightest lift is to just kind of change the way you talk, and say 'worker' more often," said Cass, who for example supports social insurance for working families.
Tax cutters in the GOP, meanwhile, say they still have much to offer, and that they've gotten results putting more money in workers' pockets. Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform said in a written statement that the potential remains vast.
"Rural areas particularly would benefit from a Republican initiative to index capital gains so that inflationary gains in your farm, home, IRA would not be taxed," he said.
All this is why in November, smart election watchers will not only monitor suburban swing voters, but also rural turnout for signs of how much work the GOP has to do.
Rob Grover will also be watching from western Wisconsin, for one simple thing.
"What are they doing for us?"
Brian Reisinger is a writer and consultant who grew up on a farm in southern Wisconsin. He was previously an aide to Gov. Scott Walker, and Republicans in the U.S. Senate. Follow him on Twitter @BrianJReisinger.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
