Republicans Are Gaining Ground in Unexpected Places

With one week to go until the midterms, a number of Republican candidates are gaining ground in states which heavily lean Democrat.

While it is still essentially a toss up on who will end up controlling the House and the Senate after November 8, with a number Governor races still seemingly going to the wire, there are some races in California, Connecticut and New York that are starting to take unexpected turns.

If the GOP has any hope to come out on top in the midterm elections, they will not only need to not only hold onto all their congressional and Senate seats, and governor positions, but also pull off some shock victories in key Blue or swing states.

While gaining ground in some initial polls may not be a surefire sign of an eventual win for the GOP, Newsweek has examined three midterm races which may still have the Democrats in a state in a panic.

Lee Zeldin, New York

New York gubernatorial hopeful Lee Zeldin is continuing to see a surge of momentum in the run up to November 8, with the Republican overtaking Governor Kathy Hochul in a recent Trafalgar Group poll.

The poll between 1,198 likely voters, conducted between October 27 and October 31, shows Zelda narrowly ahead of the Democratic incumbent by 48.4 percent to 47.6 percent.

A separate survey from co/efficient published October 21 also shows Zeldin is marginally ahead of Hochul, leading 45.6 to 45.3 percent. The survey results are a continuation of a trend in which the Zeldin has been gaining ground on Hochul.

Back in August, Hochul was 24 points ahead of Zeldin in a SurveyUSA/WNYT poll (55 to 31 percent). In another SurveyUSA poll for TV stations WHEC and WNYT published October 20, Hochul's lead had been chipped away to just six points (47 percent to 41).

Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist, previously told Newsweek that Zeldin's improvement in the polls is partly due to his campaign focusing on crime, whereas as Democrats are still predominantly hoping the fallout over abortion rights will help them beat the GOP in November.

"Democrats are backing nationally and locally on a positive voter response to the overturning of abortion legalizing Roe v. Wade," Sheinkopf said.

"Generally, it is the economy and crime, which in their minds equal Biden. Kathy Hochul, even in Democrat-blue New York, is suffering from the sense that things are just out of control."

Brian Maryott, California's 49th district

While still predicted to ultimately lose, Republican candidate has Brian Maryott managed to turn the race against Democratic Rep. Mike Levin more towards his favor, albeit following the seat becoming slightly more Republican in redistricting.

With one week before polls open, the Cook Political Report Ranking has moved California's 49th district from "Lean Democrat" to "toss-up." Politico also lists the California race between Levin and Maryott as a toss-up.

Levin is still the overwhelming favorite to win the race, with FiveThirtyEight giving the Democrat an 81 percent chance of victory. However, Maryott has managed to claw back some of the deficit in the run up to the polls opening, with Levin having a 93 percent chance of victory as recently as October 17.

"It's not unusual for races to get closer near election day," Martha Parrish, a candidate issue advisor in San Diego County, told the California Globe. "But we are seeing 10 point, 15 point, even 20 point jumps for GOP candidates all across California in different areas. There's only so much you can explain away from ads."

"In the Levin-Maryott race, a lot of people thought that this rise in support was a fluke, but as we're seeing, it is anything but. Right now, Levin still looks he will win, but Maryott now has an outside chance. Everything that has to go right needs to go right for that to happen, and God only knows about mail-in and absentee ballots, but Maryott and other Republicans are seeing this rise.

"Democrats have claimed San Diego and Orange County as being more Democratic, but they forget that there are a lot of moderates and unaffiliated people out here. If Maryott even makes the race close, Democrats are going to worry."

George Logan, Connecticut's 5th District

In the first public opinion poll released regarding the Connecticut congressional race, Republican George Logan was found to have a one point lead over incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes.

The WTNH/The Hill/Emerson College survey of 500 likely voters, published October 27, revealed Logan had a 48 to 47 percent over Hayes, with four percent still undecided.

With regards to which topics are the most important to voters, nearly half of the respondents said it was the economy, with abortion second with 15 percent, and concerns about threats to democracy third with 14 percent.

When broken down further, 45 percent of voters said the overturning Roe v. Wade made them much more likely to vote, with five percent saying somewhat more likely, while 46 percent said it made no difference.