Hamas Faces Last Stand in Gaza

The fate of Hamas now hangs in the balance as Israel threatens to resume its war in the Gaza Strip with the full support of the United States and both nations begin drawing up postwar plans to exclude the group from power.

But even amid a conflict that has already brought historic upheaval to the Middle East, observers fiercely debate over whether the deep-rooted Islamist group that emerged four decades ago and came to dominate the Palestinian armed struggle can be decisively defeated. Most agree that a moment of truth is approaching.

"I think we're getting close to this moment where there will be a last stand and a decisive battle," Amir Avivi, reserve brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and chair of the Israel Defense and Security Forum in Tel Aviv, told Newsweek.

Avivi acknowledged that, even after suffering sweeping casualties among its ranks, nearly 20,000 by the IDF's estimates, along with the loss of its core leadership, Hamas has managed to recruit thousands more and is looking to regroup amid a ceasefire reached about a month ago.

But as the temporary truce teeters on the brink of collapse, Avivi was "pretty confident that if the IDF launches a full-scale attack on Gaza, and it will be systematic, Hamas will be overpowered very soon."

Surviving 'All Hell'

Hamas and Israel have blamed each other for the precarious state of the ceasefire, a reflection of the dueling narratives that have persisted throughout the 16-month war.

Hamas has alleged that Israeli forces broke the terms of the deal nearly 270 times since it entered into implementation on January 19, a day before U.S. President Donald Trump's inauguration. After a fifth prisoner swap last week, Hamas' military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, announced on Monday it would delay the next exchange until the IDF rectified its alleged infractions.

Trump, who has taken credit for the January 15 breakthrough on the deal that was first outlined by his predecessor, has warned that Hamas must release all 76 remaining hostages by noon February 15, or the deal would be canceled altogether and "all hell is going to break out." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly backed the ultimatum, ordering the mobilization of Israeli forces in and around Gaza.

Given the circumstances, Avivi saw two scenarios before Hamas. "They either release all the hostages and simply get out of Gaza," Avivi said, "or if they stop releasing hostages, the IDF will at a certain point launch a full-scale attack on Hamas, and this attack is going to be decisive, will bring an end to the war and will achieve the goal of eradicating Hamas as a governmental and military entity."

Others were more skeptical that Hamas, officially known as the Islamic Resistance Movement, would so easily be neutralized. The group retains substantial support among Gaza's roughly 2 million people despite the growing fatigue wrought by the unprecedented toll of the war and local polls show it continues to eclipse the West Bank-based Palestinian National Authority (PA) in terms of popularity.

Fatah, the leading party of the PA and the Palestine Liberation Organization coalition, long served as the vanguard of the fight for Palestinian statehood. This status began to wane in the 1980s, however, as Hamas first arose as a splinter of the Muslim Brotherhood movement during Israel's decades-long occupation of Gaza.

A year after Israel withdrew from Gaza, Hamas' position was bolstered by its victory in the 2006 Palestinian elections, leading to a violent split with Fatah, followed by Hamas asserting control over Gaza. The group has since withstood several wars, replaced assassinated leaders and, even in the face of its most serious test to date, continues to channel legitimacy for its violent outlook in the failure of diplomatic initiatives to settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

"Hamas would exist in many forms or shapes as long as the crucial part of its naming is still valid, 'resistance,' which is a causation of the Israeli occupation," Hamze Attar, Palestinian military analyst from Gaza, told Newsweek. "Hamas can only be defeated if another idea emerges from within the Palestinian society, not a parachuted solution."

The other leading factions of Gaza such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees joined in the Hamas-led attack on Israel that sparked the war in October 2023 at a time of record Israeli-Palestinian violence. Even secular left-wing movements such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic Front for the Liberation for Palestine have regularly engaged in joint operations with Hamas.

"Therefore," Attar said, "Hamas is going nowhere in the near future, and their ability to regroup has proved many analysts, including myself, wrong."

Moreover, if the conditions that gave rise to Hamas in the first place remain unaddressed, "another Palestinian faction would emerge" following the group's defeat, "the same as Fatah and Hamas," he argued. "As long as the occupation continues, people would resist."

Leila Seurat, researcher at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Paris, also spoke to what she saw as the key to Hamas' staying power in Gaza.

"The militants of Al-Qassam are not disconnected from the Palestinian social fabric, which means that when fighters are killed, other civilian elements immediately take over," Seurat, told Newsweek. "This explains why they are able to regenerate so quickly."

She also argued that "the strength of the Al-Qassam Brigades has been underestimated" repeatedly throughout the conflict, "while Israeli combat casualties have been downplayed."

The Toll of War

Israeli officials estimate that around 1,200 people were killed and 251 people taken hostage in the initial attack led by Hamas in October 2023. The IDF has officially reported on the deaths of around 840 of its personnel, roughly half occurring during the initial Hamas operation and the remainder throughout the ensuing war.

Some have suggested a higher toll and pointed to the words of newly designated IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, who spoke last week of 5,942 bereaved family members newly registered by the Israeli military throughout the conflict. The statement, however, includes parents, grandparents, spouses, siblings and children of the slain troops.

The toll in Gaza is even more staggering. The Palestinian Health Ministry based in Gaza has recorded more than 48,200 deaths, without distinguishing between combatants and civilians. Here too, some have suspected the actual figure may be higher, with researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine recently assessing the true number of dead in Gaza could be as high as 70,000.

While a fog of war continues to obscure the true cost of the conflict, Gaza remains one of the deadliest places on Earth. Reports of violence persist even amid the ceasefire, as evidenced by the health ministry in Gaza's count of some 92 Palestinians killed by Israel since the deal began and the IDF attributing recent rocket fire in Gaza to Hamas.

The looming threat of a return or even escalation of the conflict puts Hamas in an especially difficult position as it weighs whether to double down on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.

Seurat argued that the group, despite its battered state, may opt to pursue further military pressure to attain its goals.

"Hamas has already faced such intimidation and is therefore maintaining a consistent position in line with previous months: using the ceasefire to enforce the release of Palestinian prisoners, the entry of humanitarian aid, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza," Seurat said.

"Armed resistance could, in reality, pressure Israel into negotiations," she added, "as demonstrated by the January 15 agreement, which was made possible by the actions of the Al-Qassam Brigades, who managed to hold their ground and inflict substantial losses on the Israeli army."

One current IDF official with whom Newsweek spoke assessed that the group remained capable of carrying out limited operations, consisting of as little as four fighters, but that the standing army it once commanded prior to the conflict has been effectively "eliminated." Just two out of its two dozen pre-war battalions remain, the IDF official said, and the remaining pair "have been severely hurt."

The destruction of Hamas weapons stockpiles and manufacturing sites as well as infrastructure such as underground tunnels crucial for transport, logistics and staging attacks has also considerably eroded the group's military prowess, according to the IDF official.

"Their capabilities have diminished from being a terror army to being kind of a guerilla terror group," the IDF official said. "Not to say they don't have terrorists in Gaza, we know they have terrorists in Gaza, not to say that they don't have capabilities to carry out a tactical terror attack, but they're not able, at the moment, to fight like an army, like they did on October 7 and the months after."

Given the extent of Hamas' losses, Ameneh Mehvar, Middle East analyst at the U.S.-based Armed Conflict and Location Event Data (ACLED) monitor, argued that further confrontation was not in the group's interests.

Though "far from eliminated" and still "maintaining some operational ability through guerrilla warfare and regrouping in areas like North Gaza," Hamas "has been significantly weakened—losing much of its Gaza leadership, trained fighters, and capacity for organized battalion combat," she told Newsweek.

"From Hamas' perspective, there is an existential need for a long-term cessation of hostilities to protect Gaza's civilians and allow a battered Hamas to recover," Mehvar said. "It is in their best interest to buy time and avoid renewed conflict. Hamas likely threatened to withhold the release of hostages to pressure Israel into increasing aid delivery and advancing second-phase negotiations."

"Aware that the Netanyahu government remains committed to removing Hamas from power and may resume the war after the first phase—especially in light of provocative statements from Trump—Hamas continues to signal that it can escalate the crisis if the ceasefire stalls," she added. "However, in its current weakened state, it is unlikely to initiate violence that would provoke Israel to restart the war soon."

A senior Hamas leader with whom Newsweek spoke asserted that the group "is certainly not concerned with escalation, nor is it concerned with war, nor with the killing and destruction of the Palestinian people."

"We are concerned with stopping the war and aggression against our people, and we are concerned with implementing a ceasefire, and we are concerned with removing all obstacles that could stand in the way of this aggression and withdrawing all pretexts from Netanyahu to evade the implementation of the agreement," the Hamas leader said, "because we have noticed over the past weeks that he is trying to fabricate pretexts to evade the implementation of the agreement signed between the two parties."

"We must also emphasize that what Netanyahu failed to achieve over the course of 15 months with the support of a large number of Western countries, led by the United States of America, he will not be able to achieve this even if he returns to aggression and war, as he has failed to destroy the resistance, failed to displace the population, and also failed to restore the families of the Israeli prisoners by force," the Hamas leader added.

The Hamas leader signaled a willingness for the group to peacefully concede power in Gaza, as "remaining in power is not a goal for Hamas," but only if "Palestinians agree on the formation of an administration for the Gaza Strip with national consensus as well as regional and international acceptance."

Unintended Consequences

Trump's statements have gone beyond threatening to tear up the agreement and remove Hamas from power. Even in the event both sides upheld terms of the ceasefire, he has repeatedly proposed the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza in order to redevelop the Mediterranean strip and put an end to the conflict.

His comments have won the backing of Israeli ultranationalists, some of whom constitute key components of Netanyahu's ruling coalition. The Israeli premier has also directly endorsed Trump's accompanying suggestion of the U.S. itself assuming control over Gaza.

Neighboring Egypt and Jordan, who have been asked to take in Palestinians from Gaza, have rejected the idea, as has much of the Arab and Muslim world and even a number of U.S. allies in Europe. Trump has nonetheless pressed forward undeterred.

This "is the worst-case scenario that many regional leaders are warning of," according to Merissa Khurma, program director of the Wilson Center's Middle East Program in Washington, D.C., an outcome she warned could exacerbate tensions across the region.

"An escalation in the West Bank and in Gaza may empower Hamas or Hamas-like elements outside of Gaza—in neighboring countries," Khurma told Newsweek. "In this scenario Hamas regroups outside of the Palestinian territories and metamorphoses into a regional non-state actor rather than a Palestinian one. This threatens the stability of key U.S. allies who have been advocating for peace and normalization with Israel."

While Gaza has long been the center of Hamas power, the group has a political presence in several regional countries, including Lebanon, Iran, Qatar and Turkey and it has repeatedly sought to rally support across the globe as its position at home potentially wanes.

"They are aware that their popularity in Gaza has diminished but also that the further you move away from Gaza, the higher their 'ratings' are given the brutality of Israel's war in Gaza and the extent of Palestinian death and destruction, which has fueled so much anger across the region" Khurma said. "If they opt for a 'last stand' scenario, they may lose a lot more militarily."

"The key is exerting just enough pressure on them to prioritize their own people who are in dire need of some calm and an end to this war," she added. "The 'last stand' option is one that empowers the far right in Israel and Bibi Netanyahu towards an endless war."

Update 2/14/2025 11:20 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comments provided by a senior Hamas leader.