Herschel Walker's Chances vs. Raphael Warnock as Georgia Polls Narrow

Georgia Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock maintains a slight lead over his Republican challenger Herschel Walker in what remains one of the closest midterm races, according to a poll.

A new Monmouth University survey, published on Wednesday, shows that 49 percent of potential voters said they would definitely or probably back Warnock in the November 8 election, compared to 44 percent who said the same thing about Walker.

These figures also include those in Georgia who have already cast their ballot in the Senate election via early voting, representing about 25 percent of potential voters.

When broken down further, the results are more even for those taking part in the survey who said they are "extremely motivated" to vote in November, around one in six. A total of 49 percent of highly likely voters said they would be backing Warnock, with 48 percent saying they would support Walker.

Elsewhere, Warnock has a 43 percent unfavorable rating among potential Georgia voters, and a net positive rating of 51 percent. Walker, who has been met with a string of scandals and controversies throughout his campaign, has a 52 percent unfavorable rating, up four points from the previous Monmouth poll.

"Walker's path to victory is narrow, but it's still there. He needs to get enough voters to overlook their misgivings about him to come over to his support or benefit from a turnout disparity among the two parties' base voters. At this point, the latter option looks like his better bet," Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

As is common with many elections, most notably the 2020 presidential vote, the Democrat is more favored among those using mail-in voting.

Of the one in four potential voters who have already voted in the Georgia Senate race, 61 percent say they support Warnock, with Walker way behind on 34 percent.

Among other voters likely to cast their votes using mail-in ballots within the next two weeks, 52 percent said they will back Warnock compared to 44 percent who said they would vote for Walker.

In terms of Election Day voting, the Republican is more favored among voters. A total of 39 percent said they would definitely vote for Walker on November 8, with 15 percent saying they probably will, compared to Warnock with just 24 percent definite and 10 percent probable.

"It's pretty reasonable to come up with turnout scenarios where either candidate is slightly ahead. The unknown question is to what extent Republican enthusiasm on Election Day is able to overcome the Democratic advantage in early voting," said Murray.

The Georgia Senate race is still too close to call with less than two weeks until Election Day. Of the other previous seven polls, Walker has led in the most recent three, Warnock in another three and the seventh a draw between the pair.

According to FiveThirtyEight's national poll average, Warnock is slightly ahead of Walker by just over 2 points (47.4 percent to 45 percent).

Real Clear Politics' national average is even closer, with Warnock just 0.5 percent ahead of Walker (47 percent to 46.5 percent).

Both national polls' average suggest the Georgia Senate race will advance into a run-off, just like the 2020 Senate race in which Warnock eventually won.

Walker and Warnock have been contacted for comment.