Herschel Walker's Chances vs Warnock, According to America's Best Pollster

Republican Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker looks set to be defeated in the midterm race against Democrat Raphael Warnock despite a recent voter surge, according to the country's most accurate pollster.

A SurveyUSA poll for WXIA-TV and 11Alive in Atlanta, published Thursday, showed Walker is behind Warnock by six points (43 percent to 49 percent) with just days until the midterm polls open and with a significant proportion of voters having already cast their ballots.

Despite a string of controversies that have threatened to derail his campaign, Walker actually improved by 5 points compared to a previous SurveyUSA poll in October, with Warnock dropping 1 point form his previous score of 50 percent.

However, pollsters at SurveyUSA said that with just days left to go until the November 8 elections, and with 30 percent of votes already cast, Walker may not "have enough runway—or enough lift above a potential ceiling" to overtake Warnock.

The results are a strong indication on where the neck-and-neck race could be heading. According to FiveThirtyEight, SurveyUSA is the most accurate polling group having correctly called nearly 90 percent of its previous 834 election races—a higher success rate than any other pollster.

If the latest SurveyUSA results are accurate, Warnock wouldn't cross the 50 percent threshold in order to avoid yet another run-off.

The Democrats are therefore be hoping that the 5 percent of undecided voters could help him pass the threshold, or that he could persuade those who backed Libertarian Chase Oliver to opt for him in the second round of voting in December.

When broken down further, the cost of living (32 percent) and the economy (22 percent) were named as the most important issues for voters in the midterms, with 10 percent declaring abortion to be the top issue.

When asked if how much of a candidate's position on abortion will influence who their vote for in Georgia's midterms elections, 57 percent of respondents said it would be a "major factor."

Walker's campaign has been rocked by allegations he paid for two women to undergo the procedure despite calling for a national abortion ban in all circumstances. The Republican has denied the claims.

According to FiveThirtyEight's national poll average, Warnock and Walker are tied on 46.4 percent with just four days until the polls open. A separate national poll average complied by Real Clear Politics has Walker with just a 0.5 point lead over Warnock, at 47.1 to 46.6 percent.

Walker and Warnock's campaigns have been contacted for comment.

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