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Voters in Georgia are expected to deliver another close result when they go the polls in a crucial runoff election on December 6 that will determine the state's next U.S. Senator.
Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock is battling to keep his seat in the closely watched race against Republican retired football star Herschel Walker, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
The Georgia Senate race will go to a runoff because no candidate garnered 50 percent of the vote.
For live updates on the midterms, head over to Newsweek's Live Blog: Who Won the Midterm Elections 2022?—Senate, House, Governor Results.
Senator Warnock led Walker with 49.42 percent to the Republican's 48.52 percent, with around 95 percent of votes counted as of early Friday morning, according to The New York Times. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver had won 2.7 percent of the vote.
The runoff could be decisive in determining control of the Senate, but it's not yet clear if Georgia will be essential to forming a majority in the chamber.
The Senate races in Nevada and Arizona have still not been finalized, but if Democrats can win those seats, they will capture the majority.
Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is leading Republican Blake Masters in Arizona, while Nevada's Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is behind her GOP challenger Adam Laxalt.
A key question in the Georgia race will be the role former President Trump will play. While he endorsed Walker, other candidates who've enjoyed his support have not performed as well as some had expected.
In the most high-profile case, Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz was defeated by Democratic Lt. Governor John Fetterman.
Trump has also teased a "big announcement" on November 15 that could be his formal confirmation that he'll run for the White House again in 2024. That could have an effect on the Georgia race, according to political scientists who spoke to Newsweek.
Trump's Influence
If the former president goes ahead with his widely expected campaign announcement, it has the potential to shift focus in the Georgia Senate election onto Trump.
Robert Singh, a professor at the Department of Politics at Birkbeck, University of London, told Newsweek: "Control of the US Senate could, once again, come down to the Georgia runoff.
"This is not only likely to be a very competitive race, but also offers glimpses into the path to 2024," Singh said. "A key element will be whether Donald Trump once again, as he did in 2021, proves to be a key influence."
Warnock triumphed in Georgia's Senate special election in January, 2021, defeating Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler.
Singh said that, if Trump announces his candidacy on Tuesday, "this is likely to motivate anti-Trump voters to the polls to oppose his personally endorsed candidate, Hershel Walker."
"It would likely be a boon to the Democrats," Singh added.
A National Campaign
Whether Trump announces a presidential run or not, the Georgia race will be the focus of intense national attention, particularly if control of the Senate comes down to the contest between Walker and Warnock.
"Given the closeness of the election in Georgia, I think both candidates revert back to the starting line, and everything resets," Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek.
"Neither candidate will have a clear advantage, but the race does become much bigger than Georgia. It's a national campaign now, with all the trappings that come along with it. Outside money will pour in, A-list strategists will enter the fray, and big-name politicians and celebrities will flock to the state with endorsements," he said.
"Because the Senate majority may very likely hang in the balance, the contest becomes even less about Warnock vs. Walker, and more about whether voters prefer a Democrat- or Republican-controlled chamber," Gift added.
Anxious Republicans
After Republicans underperformed in Tuesday's midterms, despite positive polling, some in the party have urged Trump to delay any 2024 announcement until after the Georgia runoff, including former adviser Jason Miller, who spent election night at Mar-a-Lago, Trump's home in Florida that was raided by the FBI.
A delay could potentially benefit Walker in a close race.
"If he [Trump] chooses not to announce, or at least stays on the sidelines, Republicans could hope to repeat the kind of effort that easily lead Brian Kemp to defeat Stacey Abrams in the race for governor," Singh told Newsweek.
Georgia's Republican Governor Brian Kemp won re-election on Tuesday with 53.4 percent of the vote, defeating Democrat Stacey Abrams.
"That Kemp and Walker's results were so strikingly different was testimony to the negative influence that Trump exerts," Singh said.
"Republicans will be anxious that he doesn't cost them control of the Senate. Either way, we can expect one of the most expensive Senate contests in U.S. history as the dollars pour in to both sides," he added.
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About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more