Herschel Walker's Chances of Beating Raphael Warnock in Final Polls

Republican Herschel Walker is expected to lose the Georgia Senate runoff as all the final opinion polls show Raphael Warnock in the lead.

Walker looks set to be the latest Donald Trump-endorsed midterm candidate to be defeated as seven public surveys, including those published on the eve of the December 6 vote, showed him behind the Democratic incumbent.

A Data for Progress survey of 1,229 likely voters, conducted between December 1 and 5, showed Warnock ahead by 2 percentage points (51-49), with more people holding a favorable view of the Democrats than the GOP candidate for Georgia Senate.

A Trafalgar Group poll of 1,099 respondents conducted between December 3 and December 5 also showed Warnock ahead of Walker by 51.1 percent to 47.4 percent.

Elsewhere, a poll of 1,300 likely voters by the UMass Lowell's Center for Public Opinion, conducted between November 18 and November 28, showed Warnock ahead by 51 percent to Walker's 46 percent.

Discussing the results, Professor John Cluverius, the director of survey research at the center, said that while the race could still go "either way," the series of scandals and controversies that have plagued Walker's campaign means the Republican is "in trouble" going into the runoff election.

Walker is accused of paying for two of his former girfriends' abortions, despite later supporting a national ban on the procedure, and he was found to have made a series of false statements about his education and employment history as well as other erratic remarks.

"Voters know the economy is rough, but a spate of scandals has destroyed Walker's favorables with voters. In a normal, textbook election, Warnock would look like a lame duck walking," Cluverius said in a statement.

"Instead, he's been able to avoid blame for rising prices and keep voters—who are skeptical of Biden but don't like Trump—in his corner. Right now, it looks like Warnock is in the driver's seat."

Of the past nine polls, Warnock has led in the seven most recent, with Walker having a narrow one-point lead in a Phillips Academy Poll published on November 28 and a Fredericks Poll conducted between November 23 and November 26 showing the race split 50-50.

An Emerson College poll conducted between November 28 and November 30 placed Warnock above Walker by 51 percent to 49 percent, with the results showing that regardless of who they support, 57 percent of voters in Georgia expect Warnock to win the run-off election.

"Despite the ballot test being well within the poll's margin of error, a Walker win would surprise the majority of voters. About one in five Republicans expect their nominee to lose," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

"This reflects a significant shift since the last pre-general election poll earlier this month, where voters were nearly 50-50 if Warnock or Walker would win."

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