Herschel Walker's Unusual Runoff Strategy Could Play Into Warnock's Hands

Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock held six separate public events over the Thanksgiving holiday as he campaigned against Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

Walker, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, had no public campaign events over the holiday, though he did reportedly attend closed-door fundraising events and celebrated his mother's 85th birthday.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Walker's lack of campaign events "baffled many of his Republican allies," but he returned to the campaign trail on Monday with events in the cities of Toccoa and Cumming.

Newsweek has asked the Walker campaign for comment.

Political scientists who spoke to Newsweek on Wednesday suggested the differing campaign styles could work to Warnock's advantage and showed his experience as a politician, while Walker's political inexperience and celebrity status could harm him.

However, Walker could potentially benefit from staying out of the limelight.

A Celebrity Candidate

Walker's high profile as a former football star stands in stark contrast to Warnock's years as a pastor and that difference may be playing a role in how the two men are campaigning, according to Mark Shanahan, an associate professor at the University of Surrey in the U.K. and co-editor of The Trump Presidency: From Campaign Trail to World Stage.

"The more Georgians focus on the race, the more they must realize what a poor candidate Walker is - flaky and with a poor grasp of the policies that affect most voters across the state," Shanahan told Newsweek.

"What we're seeing in this runoff race is the former activist and minister who has learned the dark arts of DC politics swiftly, versus the celebrity exposed in the main campaign as a political naïf," he said.

Shanahan said: "The celebrity has taken some time off to rest and regroup."

"The slightly more seasoned politician has realized that the time for rest on a campaign is the day after the day the result comes in - and his activities across the Thanksgiving weekend have certainly given him the edge in reaching the undecideds - if any still remain in Georgia," he said.

Self-Inflicted Wounds

Walker's campaign had been dogged by controversy, including strong criticism from his own son, accusations he paid for an ex-girlfriend's abortion - which he denied - and a series of unforced gaffes.

The Warnock campaign has even taken aim at Walker by airing a campaign ad of some of the Republican's speeches where he discussed a vampire movie and Chinese air.

Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek that Walker could potentially benefit from staying away from the campaign trail.

"Admittedly, staying out of the limelight may not be the worst idea for Walker at this stage," Gift said. "The more he opens his mouth, the more fodder he gives to his opponents."

"Hiding from view is probably the optimal strategy if the goal is to coast into election day without any more self-inflicted wounds," he added.

A Slim Lead for Warnock

With just a week until the December 6 runoff, Walker appears likely to continue campaigning, though he isn't expected to be joined by former President Trump.

Mark Shanahan told Newsweek that would likely benefit the Republican.

"Warnock has out-fundraised and out-spent Walker across the run-off period and going into the home straight is a slight favorite in what's still a closely contested race - despite Walker's obvious weaknesses," Shanahan said.

"The Republican has probably benefited by Donald Trump's decision to keep out of the race and may benefit more in the final days of the campaign if he can get Governor Brian Kemp to go to bat on his behalf. Warnock will likely focus on independents and, as in 2021, getting minorities and the young out on the day," he said.

Kemp, the recently reelected Republican governor who has clashed with former President Trump, previously campaigned for Walker ahead of the runoff.

Recent polls show a close race between Warnock and Walker, while bookmakers Betfair, which operates the world's largest online betting exchange, told Newsweek on Tuesday that the senator is a clear favorite to win, with odds of 1/10 on Warnock and 4/1 on a Republican victory.

"The Democrats have always been in a very strong position to win the Georgia Senate runoff, with odds of 1/7 last week and they've been steadily improving their chances over the last few days, according to the betting, and are now 1/10 to win," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek.

A Race That Matters

Democrats clinched the Senate majority in the recent midterm elections, but a Warnock victory would boost that majority and add to Republicans' surprisingly poor performance.

Shanahan pointed out that the Georgia race "will no longer decide the fate of the Senate for the next two years, and some voters may no longer feel it matters."

"But in Washington, the Democrats are relying on Warnock to maintain the slim lead he had on November 8," he said. "With his vote in Congress, Chuck Schumer won't be reliant on the right-leaning Joe Manchin when it comes to getting any of the Biden agenda onto the statutes. In the big picture beyond the Peach state, that matters."

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