Four House Candidates Who Defied Polls to Win Their Elections

American voters headed to the polls on Tuesday to cast ballots in the highly anticipated midterm elections, the results of which could help or hinder Democratic and Republican agendas over the next two years.

A number of races have yet to be called, and neither party has so far managed to secure majorities in the House of Representatives or Senate. Republicans are still three seats shy of a Senate majority and nine seats shy of a House majority as of Thursday afternoon.

For live updates on the midterms, head over to Newsweek's Live Blog: Who Won the Midterm Elections 2022?—Senate, House, Governor Results.

Among the races that have already been called, at least four candidates who won their elections to serve in the House were behind their opponents by at least 5 points in recent polling, or were considered extremely likely to lose.

Below is a breakdown of U.S. House candidates who defied polls or projections to win their elections, as well as the states and districts they are now poised to serve.

Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District

Democrat Seth Magaziner, who currently serves as Rhode Island's general treasurer, beat Republican Allan Fung in a race for the state's 2nd Congressional District.

But most polling leading up to Election Day showed Fung, an attorney and former mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, with a sizeable lead over the Democrat. As of November 8, FiveThirtyEight's polling average for the race gave Fung a 5.9-point lead, with 47.1 percent of support compared to Magaziner's 41.2 percent of support.

The race has been called in Magaziner's favor by the Associated Press, though a small percentage of votes remain uncounted. As of Thursday afternoon, Magaziner had received 50.3 percent of votes compared to Fung's 47 percent.

"THANK YOU to the voters of Rhode Island for putting your faith in me to represent our state in Congress, and to all of the volunteers who worked so hard for our victory tonight," he tweeted Tuesday.

Ohio's 13th Congressional District

Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, a former Miss Ohio USA, was favored in FiveThirtyEight's election model to win the race against Democratic state Representative Emilia Sykes for Ohio's 13th Congressional District. Gilbert was victorious in 81 out of 100 scenarios considered by the model.

Additionally, one poll in late May from RMG Research showed Gilbert with a 9-point lead over Sykes, though a couple other surveys gave the Democrat marginal leads in the race.

The AP has now called the race in Sykes' favor. As of Thursday afternoon, she had 52.6 percent of support compared to Gilbert's 47.4 percent.

"Pack your bags, #OH13... We're going to Congress!!!" she tweeted Tuesday.

Colorado's 8th Congressional District

Republican state Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer of Colorado seemed likely in polls to beat Democratic opponent Yadira Caraveo, a current member of the state's House of Representatives, in the race for the newly-drawn 8th Congressional District. A mid-June poll from Global Strategy Group gave Kirk a hefty 8-point lead, though two more recent surveys from the same firm gave the Republican smaller 2-point leads.

But Kirkmeyer announced on Twitter late Wednesday that she had called Caraveo to concede the competitive race as the Democrat maintained a lead.

"While this is not the outcome we hoped for, I am proud of our team and our campaign," Kirkmeyer tweeted. "And 'thank' all of the team, the countless volunteers, the folks who contributed and my family."

New York's 19th Congressional District

Republican county executive Marcus Molinaro beat Democratic lawyer Josh Riley in the race for New York's 19th Congressional District, a defeat that recent polls indicated was not in the cards.

The two most recent surveys listed on FiveThirtyEight, both from Siena College, showed Riley with a 5-point lead over Molinaro.

The race was called for Molinaro by the AP, with the Republican receiving 51.1 percent of support as of Thursday afternoon compared to Riley's 48.9 percent.

"I am incredibly grateful to the people in New York's 19th Congressional District," Molinaro tweeted Wednesday. "I commend my opponent Josh Riley, because running for office is incredibly challenging - and credit belongs to the individual who enters the arena."

Uncalled House Races

At least two other House races that are still uncalled have the potential to produce a winner who defied polls and projections.

In the race for Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, Republican Representative Lauren Boebert was expected to secure a comfortable win over Democrat Adam Frisch. FiveThirtyEight's election model showed Boebert as being "clearly favored" to win, with 97 out of 100 outcomes resulting in a GOP victory. Additionally, one poll in late July gave Boebert a 7-point lead over Frisch, though not all surveys have clocked the same margin.

The election has turned out to be extremely tight. Frisch was actually leading Boebert by a razor thin margin until she overtook him on Thursday, though it remains to be seen if her slight lead will hold as votes continue to be counted.

In California's 22nd Congressional District, Republican Representative David Valadao is currently leading Democrat Rudy Salas by a strong margin as the race has yet to be called, and a large percentage of votes appear to remain uncounted.

Two July polls gave Salas strong leads of 5 and 8 points over Valadao. The district is strongly Democratic, The New York Times reported, and mailed ballots in the state that were postmarked by Election Day have a week to arrive.

With just 39 percent of the vote currently in, a surprise victory from Valadao may be less likely once more mailed ballots arrive. But at least for now, Valadao has defied polling to receive 54 percent of the vote compared to Salas' 36 percent.