House Republicans' Defense Strategy for Impeachment Hearings Reveals Flaws: Analysis

House Republicans have geared up for the first public impeachment hearings in the Ukraine scandal, set to take place this week, by having GOP staffers send a memo to lawmakers that outlines the strategy to best defend President Donald Trump.

But flaws remain within their arguments, which fail to address some of the damning allegations that Democrats will focus their questions on.

The 18-page document details four main points of evidence that Republicans believe "are fatal to the Democrats' allegations" that Trump made an effort to force his Ukrainian counterpart to investigate Democrats and 2016 election interference by withholding foreign military aid.

• "The July 25 call summary—the best evidence of the conversation—shows no conditionality or evidence of pressure."
• "President Zelensky and President Trump have both said there was no pressure on the call."

In his now-infamous call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Trump said he "would like you to do us a favor, though," when prompted about U.S. aid to purchase American military weapons. He then repeatedly asked for the Ukrainians to investigate a gas company tied to Joe Biden and his son Hunter, and a probe into a conspiracy theory involving Ukraine and 2016 election interference in the United States. Based on private witness depositions given to impeachment investigators, former and current administration officials have painted a picture of a months-long effort by Trump and his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani to pressure the foreign country into investigating one of president's possible political opponents.

• "The Ukrainian government was not aware of a hold on U.S. security assistance at the time of the July 25 call."

The argument that a quid pro quo could not exist because Ukraine was at first unaware of the hold on aid has emerged front and center for Trump and Republicans. But Ukrainians eventually become aware after a Politico story, which Republicans have largely ignored. Several officials have also said that it eventually became apparent to the Ukrainians why the aid had still not arrived after repeated requests to conduct certain investigations.

U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland amended his initial deposition to confirm the existence of a quid pro quo. He stated that he told a top Ukrainian aide the "resumption of U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anti-corruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks." The anti-corruption statement was meant to serve as a promise by Zelenskiy to investigate the Bidens and 2016 U.S. election meddling.

The top U.S. diplomat in Ukraine, William Taylor, privately testified about similar revelations last month. "I think it was becoming clear to the Ukrainians that, in order to get this meeting that they wanted, they would have to commit to pursuing these investigations," he said. Taylor is set to answer questions publicly on Wednesday in the House hearings.

Laura Cooper, the top Pentagon official overseeing U.S.-Ukraine policy, concurred, based on conversations she had with Taylor and former U.S. special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker. "I knew from my Kurt Volker conversation, and also from sort of the alarm bells that were coming from Ambassador Taylor and his team, that there were Ukrainians who knew about this," she told lawmakers behind closed doors last month.

• "President Trump met with President Zelensky and U.S. security assistance flowed to Ukraine in September 2019—both of which occurred without Ukraine investigating President Trump's political rivals."

The withholding of aid had become public, and witness depositions suggest there was mounting concern among State Department officials about why the aid continued to be withheld. Taylor threatened to quit over the matter, and several others have resigned since a whistleblower brought the Ukraine scandal to light.

The memo further outlined four main pieces of background information to support Republicans' arguments: Ukraine's "long history of pervasive corruption"; Trump has a "deep-seated, genuine, and reasonable skepticism"; Ukrainian officials "interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election in opposition to President Trump" by issuing public criticisms; and Trump has repeatedly said Europe "should pay its fair share for regional defense."

Democrats responded Tuesday by circulating an internal memo of their own, which was obtained by Newsweek, that claimed it "debunked" each of the Republicans' four main points of evidence.

Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee, the panel conducting the hearings, will also likely focus on discrediting any witness without first-person information gathered from Trump himself.

Still, impeachment witnesses have privately stated that it became their understanding—based on direct conversations with Trump or others around him—that Zelenskiy would get a White House visit and the nearly $400 million in aid only after he agreed to investigate the Bidens and the conspiracy theory involving Ukraine and 2016 election interference.

Sondland had direct conversations with Trump, while Taylor told lawmakers it was his "clear understanding" there was a quid pro quo. He came to that belief based on information from Tim Morrison, a top official on the National Security Council handling Russian affairs. The lack of firsthand knowledge will be used by Republicans as hearsay evidence.

However, Taylor also said that, based on his conversations with Ukrainian officials, "I think it was becoming clear to the Ukrainians that in order to get this meeting that they wanted, they would have to commit to pursuing these investigations."

George Kent, the deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, will testify Wednesday, in addition to Taylor. Their hearings will be followed on Friday by Marie Yovanovitch, the ousted ambassador to Ukraine.

All three witnesses, among others, have detailed allegations about how involved Giuliani was in U.S.-Ukraine policy and the pressure campaign to probe the Bidens.

Giuliani and Trump have denied any allegations of a quid pro quo, and there is no evidence of wrongdoing by the Bidens.