What House and Senate Forecasts Predict With 10 Days to Midterms

With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives. But in the race for control of the Senate, Democrats and Republicans appear locked in a much tighter contest.

The polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight says Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the House. But when examining Senate races, it refers to the contest for control of the upper chamber as a "dead heat," giving Democrats a 53 percent chance of maintaining power and Republicans a 47 percent chance of winning a majority of seats.

Politico says the race for control of the Senate is a "toss-up" and says the races in Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania are the most highly contested. The news site declined to make predictions about which party will likely win in those states. However, it predicts that the GOP will likely take control of the House.

Republicans currently hold 212 seats in the House compared to Democrats' 220. In the Senate, Democrats only hold 50 out of 100 seats, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes.

Analysts at The Economist, however, say Democrats are likely to maintain control of the Senate. The publication says that Democrats win the majority in 80 out of 100 simulated midterm elections.

The Economist also calls the House race "very close," but says that Republicans win 65 out of 100 midterm simulations.

In an interview with Newsweek on Thursday, David Paleologos, the director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University, said that the "overriding thinking" is that Republicans will retake the House.

But he said that he believes Republicans would have been able to easily win the Senate if they had chosen more "moderate" candidates, and had the Supreme Court not recently rolled back abortion rights this summer.

"Had Roe v. Wade not been overturned and had the Republicans fielded more moderate, likeable Senate candidates, this would be a red monsoon," Paleologos said.

"You still could have a Republican Senate, but you may not," he added.

Paleologos said that after Roe v. Wade was overturned, "we notice in the polling data that independent women who normally vote with independent men are splitting with independent men." This change "could protect some Democratic senators who appear to be vulnerable," he said.

Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, told Newsweek Thursday that in the race for control of the Senate, a half dozen races "are going to be really close and conceivably one party or the other could take all of them."

"This is so close that the dominoes could fall both ways....If there's a half a dozen close seats, it could be three and three, or five and one. I don't think reasonably you can tell now," Miringoff said, noting that some of the key Senate races include those in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio.

Spencer Kimball, the director of Emerson College Polling, said he believes that the race for control of the Senate is "leaning toward Republicans right now."

"I would have told you two weeks ago I thought it was leaning toward the Democrats," Kimball said in an interview with Newsweek. But he noted that according to unpublished polling data, recent debates between the candidates in Georgia—Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Herschel Walker—and those in Pennsylvania—Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz— seemed to give boosts to the Republicans in those states.

"I think the winds are blowing right now for the Republicans, but you're 10 days out and so those winds can quickly shift in the other direction," Kimball said.

Kimball said that based on "historical precedents," Republicans have the advantage when it comes to winning control of the House.

"These are midterm elections—incumbent presidents lose seats," he said.

He added that from a "trends perspective," Democrats are "battling the winds to try to win the House."

"And they've always been in that position," Kimball said.