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El Niño has arrived, and the climate pattern is likely to bring above-average moisture to the southern U.S. this winter.
El Niño is one of two climate patterns that greatly impact Earth's weather. La Niña recently culminated in the spring, ending a multiyear period in which the pattern influenced the weather. El Niño started in June, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) most recent update has identified El Niño as having high odds of being historically strong.
That means parts of California could see another wet winter, a welcome weather pattern as many of the state's lakes and reservoirs continue to recover from a years-long drought. But an El Niño year doesn't guarantee excess moisture in Southern California.
"Take for example 2015-16, where we were in an El Niño and everyone in Central and Southern California had below-average precipitation," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok told Newsweek.
El Niño is a climate pattern that starts with warm water building up in the tropical Pacific Ocean west of South America. This happens every three to seven years. Last year was a La Niña year, or the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. La Niña typically results in lower precipitation for California during the winter months, although that wasn't the case last year.
California received above-average precipitation last year, bolstered by more than a dozen atmospheric rivers that all but eliminated any concerns of drought in the state. AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva previously told Newsweek that El Niño typically is known for its above-average precipitation in the winter, not La Niña, which makes last winter in California an anomaly.
The forecast this year shows that El Niño will bring above-average precipitation to southern states in the U.S. this winter. NOAA also anticipates that there's a 95 percent chance El Niño will continue through March 2024.
El Niño is usually felt the strongest during the winter months, but the forecast changes depending on where you look in California. Pastelok said that Southern California is expected to receive above-average precipitation this winter. Northern California could receive average to slightly below-average precipitation amounts, although the forecast won't be finalized until later this fall.
"The water temperatures southeast of Hawaii...are running below normal, and those can alter the storm track," Pastelok said.
So instead of hitting Southern California, moisture-laden storms might move further south in Mexico.
AccuWeather's long-term winter forecast will be published October 4.
NOAA also anticipated that there will be above-average temperatures through December throughout California, with a higher probability of above-average temperatures in the northern part.
Outside of California, other Southern states—particularly those in the Southeast like Georgia, Florida and South Carolina—are anticipated to have a wet winter. Texas also could see excess precipitation, which would aid in relieving the drought, although it's still up for debate how much of the state will benefit from the precipitation until the winter forecast is finalized.
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About the writer
Anna Skinner is a Newsweek senior reporter based in Indianapolis. Her focus is reporting on the climate, environment and weather ... Read more
