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Amid the Supreme Court's recent onslaught of controversial decisions, one alarming order went relatively unnoticed. The justices announced that they will hear Moore v. Harper in their next term, potentially triggering a series of events that could very well upend the cornerstone of democracy: free and fair elections.
On its face, Moore v. Harper, concerned with a redistricting dispute in North Carolina, seems relatively innocuous, but its potential consequences are chilling. At the core of this case is a right-wing, fringe legal theory that could empower Trump-aligned state lawmakers to overrule the will of voters in the 2024 presidential election and send hand-picked electors to the Electoral College.
Considering that no fewer than four Supreme Court justices—Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Clarence Thomas—expressed support for the dangerous theory at the heart of this case as recently as March 2022, the threat is real. When the Supreme Court validates this theory—and they will—Republican state lawmakers will essentially have a roadmap to steal the election.
Compounded by predictions that Democrats ought to prepare for major losses this November, it can feel like there's no viable path out of this perfect storm. However, Democrats have a shot at undercutting this attack on democracy, but only if they're finally willing to take statehouse races seriously. Though they tend to go unnoticed, state legislative races are the frontline of our democracy. Were that not enough, the fate of some of the most pressing issues of our time—from democracy to gun safety to abortion access—hinges on a handful of state legislative races this November.
Former President Donald Trump's failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election ran right through GOP-controlled state legislatures in battleground states. Now he and his allies want nothing more than to shift ultimate oversight and control of our elections over to state legislatures.
While Democratic leadership touts electing Democrats as our primary solution, they aren't telling you where those votes matter most. The only way to prevent the unimaginable consequences posed by this case is to win power in at least one chamber in battleground states that are the key to over 270 Electoral College votes. Short of chamber-flips, keeping margins as tight as possible is also a critical threshold to ensure we only need a handful of Republican legislators to do the right thing and prevent election subversion.
Forward Majority's analysis shows there is a path to a Democratic majority in the Michigan Senate, the Pennsylvania House, and the Arizona House and Senate. Across these chambers, a small sliver of just about 25 seats is the lynchpin of power. Winning, or even just tying, these chambers would inch Democrats closer to 270 Electoral College votes.
Success will require tapping every single opportunity for electoral strength. For example, in battleground state legislative districts in suburban Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan, areas often neglected by existing voter registration efforts, our latest analysis estimated there are over 1 million unregistered likely Democratic voters. This is exactly why we've launched a groundbreaking voter registration effort in targeted state legislative districts in these three states—and are racing to boost Democratic advantage where it counts. Ultimately, this has the potential for decisive impact in the tipping point races that will determine state legislative chamber control.
Republicans are already gearing up to contest and sow distrust in the upcoming midterms. Democrats cannot afford to cross their fingers, hoping that the right-wing supermajority on the Supreme Court will make the right decision and uphold democracy. It's time for Democrats to take this threat seriously. They must be laser-focused on organizing and winning footholds of power in key state legislatures.
While it's not too late to act, doing so will require an immense amount of focus and investment, but the opportunity—and the necessity—to win at the state level has never been more important.
Vicky Hausman and David Cohen are co-founders and co-CEOs of Forward Majority.
The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.
