How Joe Biden's Approval Ratings Stand 4 Weeks Before Midterms

With less than four weeks to go until the crucial midterm elections, President Joe Biden's approval rating appears to be holding steady in the low-40s as Democrats fight to retain control of Congress.

The serving president's party normally performs poorly in midterms, but polling paints a mixed picture for Biden's party and for Republicans ahead of the elections on November 8.

Biden's approval rating stood at 42.4 percent as of Wednesday, according to analysis from poll tracker FiveThirtyEight, while 52.3 percent of Americans disapproved of the job he's doing.

That's a slight decline over the past month as the president's approval rating was 42.6 percent on September 12, while disapproval of Biden stood at 53 percent.

However, Biden has seen a marked improvement in his approval rating in the past few months. His rating entered negative territory on August 30, based on FiveThirtyEight's figures—the day before the final withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

Biden's approval fell as low as 37.5 percent on July 21, when disapproval of the president was 57.2 percent.

The last midterm elections took place on November 6, 2018, during the second year of former President Donald Trump's administration. At the same stage that year—October 10, 2018—Trump's approval rating was 41.7 percent, while 52.6 percent of Americans disapproved of him.

Democrats took control of the House of Representatives in 2018 but Republicans retained control of the Senate and recent polls suggest a similar result this year, though with the parties' positioned reversed.

The Democratic Party is slightly favored to win the Senate in FiveThirtyEight's analysis, but the GOP is favored to take the House, which would lead to a divided Congress for the first time in two years and likely stymie the president's agenda for the two years leading up to the next presidential election.

Republicans are also likely to launch a series of investigations if they control House committees, including potential probes of the president's son, Hunter Biden, and his business dealings as well as the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and conditions at the U.S.-Mexico border, among other matters.

The president's popularity is only one factor that may inform voters' preferences, however. Issues including the economy and inflation, the Supreme Court's recent decision on abortion and ongoing investigations into the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021 are also likely to play a role.

A recent poll from The Washington Post/ABC News showed that the economy and inflation are the top two issues among registered voters and that majorities of registered voters trust Republicans on both issues more than Democrats.

However, Democrats are very unlikely to suffer a defeat like the record losses they sustained in 2010 during former President Barack Obama's first term when the party shed 63 House seats.