How Lake Erie Water Levels Will Change After Winter Storm

A gusty winter storm this weekend is expected to drastically change Lake Erie's water levels.

The storm plaguing a large swath of the eastern U.S. will be followed by frigid temperatures that could prove deadly. Heavy snow is expected, particularly in the Great Lakes region. Strong winds will follow the storm, creating substantial water level changes in Lake Erie on Saturday. The winds will likely cause a 12-foot change in Lake Erie's water levels.

"Strong winds moving SW-NE can cause major water level changes across this lake," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday. "This Saturday, predicted water level in Buffalo is 12 feet higher than in Toledo!"

The NOAA GLERL shared an animation that depicted the changes in the lake's water levels with the post.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines told Newsweek that the 12-foot difference in water levels was "very impressive." The change in levels will occur as the winds blow in the storm's wake.

"Anytime you have really high winds like we're going to have over the weekend out of one direction across a long stretch of water, you'll get this," Kines said. "In this case, the Buffalo [New York] side of the lake is going to have much more water. The wind keeps pushing the water more and more to one side."

Kines said the winds aren't expected to settle down until Sunday night or Monday.

As of Friday afternoon, a low-water advisory was in place for Lake Erie's Michigan waters from the Detroit River to North Cape, Michigan. The National Weather Service (NWS) also issued a gale warning for the area.

"During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 48 knots," the advisory said. "The largest significant waves will be 7 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 10 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels expected."

The largest waves in Michigan waters are expected around Saturday at 7 a.m. ET. The NWS warned that the waves could "capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility."

The strong southwesterly winds will cause water levels to drop quickly in the lake's western basin. Below-normal water levels will result in hazardous conditions for marine vessels.

"The critical mark for safe navigation at Toledo is 6 inches above low water datum. The current projection is for water levels to fall 2 to 4 feet below the critical mark," the NWS warning said.

NWS advised mariners to alter their plans to avoid the hazardous conditions.

Lake Erie's above-normal water temperatures also have the ability to affect the storm by influencing how much lake-effect snow falls throughout the region.

"Lake Erie is currently running historically warm [data range dating back to 1995]," WROC chief meteorologist Eric Snitil posted on X on Wednesday. "Something tells me this is going to be a relevant fact into the weekend/next week as cold air pours into WNY. Lake effect snow machine, get ready to crank."

Lake-effect snow occurs when cold air crosses over a warmer body of water. Kines previously told Newsweek that he expected snowfall totals to reach 4 feet in some parts of the Great Lakes region.