How Moldova Is Getting Drawn Into Russia's War With Ukraine

The tiny Eastern European country of Moldova was without power for two hours last Wednesday after Russian missiles hit several infrastructure targets in Ukraine. It was the latest in a series of worrisome events that have stoked concerns over the country being drawn into the war between its neighbors.

Moldova, a landlocked nation squeezed between Romania and Ukraine, is Europe's poorest country, and now it's struggling with the energy crisis hitting the continent. The war in Ukraine has only exacerbated its already dire economic situation, threatening to destabilize the country.

In April, a series of explosions in the Moscow-backed region of Transnistria were deemed by Moldova's intelligence officials to be a potential attempt by the Kremlin to throw the country into chaos. In July and August, several false bomb threats were also reported in the country, and in October, missile debris landed in a border village in Moldova.

The country was then last week impacted by massive outages following the Russian strikes on Ukraine, as the Moldovan energy system is connected to the Ukrainian grid.

"The war is endangering the supply of electricity and gas. We are not certain we can find enough volumes to heat and light our homes," the country's pro-Western president Maia Sandu said. "This could jeopardize our social peace and security."

In response to the emergency caused by the power outage, an international donor conference in Paris last week raised $102 million for the former Soviet republic, according to French president Emmanuel Macron. Two previous conferences this year raised hundreds of millions of dollars to help Moldova deal with rising energy and food prices as the war drags on.

"Moldova remains Ukraine's most vulnerable neighbor," Sandu said at the donor conference. "As Ukraine defends itself from Russian attacks it also defends Moldova and defends the whole of Europe [...] the international community must do everything to support Ukraine."

Macron agreed that helping Moldova "is part of the war effort we lead alongside Ukraine."

Moldova and Russia: 'Energy Blackmail'

Moldova has been an independent country since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when it officially severed ties with Moscow. One year later, it joined the United Nations.

Its history as an independent republic has been marred by government corruption, poverty, and a fierce war against separatists in Transnistria—a 249-mile long strip of land at the border with Ukraine inhabited by some 470,000 people—in 1992.

Since then, Transnistria has been a de facto independent state within Moldova, though it's internationally recognized as part of the country. Despite the fact that Moldova is a neutral country that doesn't allow the deployment of armed forces of other states on its territory, Russian troops have been stationed in Transnistria since the cease-fire in 1992, allegedly for "peacekeeping."

According to AP, there are currently 1,500 Russian troops in the territory of the breakaway region.

The area is considered one of the post-Soviet "frozen conflict" zones where peace is considered to be at risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"The current relations between Moldova and Russia are at record low since 1991," historian Igor Casu, associate professor and director of the Center for the Study of Totalitarianism at the State University of Moldova in Chisinau, told Newsweek.

"Even though Moldova has maintained its neutrality status regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war and has not sent troops, Moldova is an active supporter of Ukraine."

Moldova has received some 200,000 Ukrainian refugees since the beginning of the war, an enormous number for a country of a total 3.5 million people.

"Even before the war, President Maia Sandu participated in a conference called Crimea Platform condemning Russia's annexation of the peninsula back in 2014. That outraged Russia," said Casu.

"More recently, as a result of the support Moldova expresses toward Kyiv, Moscow decided to punish Chisinau, reducing the amount of gas to the country by 30 percent on October 1 and announced a further reduction to 56.5 percent by December 1."

As Moldova is the only European country to be fully dependent on Russian gas, this decision by the Kremlin delivered a serious blow to the state's economy. The country has since chosen an alternative to Gazprom's supplies, but other energy providers sell at higher costs than the Russian giant.

"Russia hopes to destabilize the political, economic and social situation in Moldova by using energy blackmail," said Casu.

In September, disgruntled citizens protested against high prices and demanded Sandu's resignation.

Could Moldova Be Drawn Into Putin's War?

"I think Moldova overcame the critical moment when it could be drawn in the Russian-Ukrainian war," Casu said.

"The peak was in the earlier stages of the war when Russian troops took Kherson and moved in the direction of Mykolaiv. If that city had to fall, Russians would have continued their combined offensive on land and sea against Odessa.

"With Odessa in the Russian hands, Transnistria eventually had to enter the war. That would have tremendous consequences on Moldova as Russian troops could attack it from south and east and thus have not even a theoretical chance to resist."

As Russian troops have retreated from key neighboring areas in Ukraine, the risk of Moldova being drawn into the war in Ukraine has dissipated, even as the country still remains likely to suffer from the fallout of Russian attacks on Ukraine.

But Casu is hopeful that the current struggles might lead to Moldova becoming more independent from Russia.

"As in the case of previous Russian embargoes on Moldovan wines, fruits and other goods, recent Russian attempts to destabilize Moldova would make it more resilient in the medium- and long-term from Russia," he said.

"Russian efforts to punish Moldova would bring her closer to Romania and the EU forever. The challenges however remain as the dissatisfaction of the population with higher prices on gas and electricity creates a great pressure on the present government."