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Last month, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Moore v. Harper to decide the validity of a dangerous interpretation of constitutional law known as the independent state legislative theory (ISLT). If the court confirms this once-fringe theory, it could pave the way for unchecked state legislative power over federal elections—a dagger to the heart of our democracy.
Over the past months, the court's devastating decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and leave reproductive rights up to the states, combined with the conservative majority's demonstrated openness to validating the ISLT and endangering our democracy via Moore v. Harper, put state legislatures at center stage ahead of November's midterm elections.
In a year that was anticipated to favor Republicans, the biggest upsets came at the state legislative level. Not only did Democrats protect every single chamber but they flipped four new chambers, a stark outlier to past midterms, and far exceeding the expectations of the party establishment.
The significance of November's results cannot be overstated. Heading into the election, Republicans were in full control of the legislatures in states well beyond the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House, including every single major battleground state. But, newly minted Democratic majorities in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and ground held to keep the Arizona legislature closely divided have significantly reduced (though not eliminated) the most immediate threats of the ISLT to a free and fair presidential election. On the heels of these wins, there is an opportunity to reflect on the lessons learned in the fight to build state legislative power after decades of ceding this key part of our democracy to the GOP.
Money matters. Collectively, our efforts have invested over $160 million since our respective inceptions in 2017. The States Project and Forward Majority recognized that state legislatures were overlooked and underfunded, and relentlessly raised the alarm on the massive funding gaps in the most valuable state legislative races, where Democrats were often outspent by factors of 10 to 1. Last year changed that, and Democrats took the edge in spending, which continues to be, for too many Democratic candidates, an incredible threshold to clear.
Winning the most important races demands data and innovation. Of course, money matters—but how you use those resources determines the wins and losses. Our electoral playbooks are grounded in data and innovation, to help win the most important tipping point races. That means incentivizing candidates to knock on doors; building the most effective campaigns based upon proven tactics; finding every opportunity to boost performance with proven persuasion tactics; and by expanding the electorate in systematically neglected state legislative battleground districts. Strategic voter registration can change the outcome in state legislative districts and help flip entire chambers. This year, with four chambers flipping by fewer than a thousand votes—total, between them!—there's evidence that it did.
Compete aggressively even in "bad" years. For Democrats this year, polls fueled irrational exuberance, then irrational despair. In this uncertain environment, many prepare for downside protection, but fail to also plan for potential upside opportunity, especially at a level of the ballot that many would rather ignore altogether. We knew that the stakes of this election were too high to not try to win as many seats as possible in the most consequential state legislative chambers. In doing so, we were positioned to help Democrats win key races that determined chamber control by a handful of votes, including the Michigan Senate which came down to 313 votes, and the Pennsylvania House which was decided with a nail-biting 63 vote finish. The stellar results this cycle validate taking calculated risks that account for upside, not just downside. To do anything else at the state legislative level concedes our democracy and freedoms. These races are simply too small and too close for polling or forecasting to accurately capture. And, as importantly, the marginal cost of going all in on state legislatures is pennies on the overall campaign dollars being spent upballot.
None of this happened overnight. While electoral change comes in bursts, the strategies and tactics that delivered our successes in this election must not be taken for granted; leaders, organizers, and candidates have been working hard in this fight, implementing lessons learned over many years. Continuing to win power in state legislatures requires doing something transgressive in Democratic politics: thinking strategically about the long term.This requires taking a data-driven approach and investing now, even in races and geographies that Democrats likely won't win next year — like in the Sun Belt, where gerrymandered maps will likely become more competitive on the back end of this decade.
Democratic wins in state legislatures this November were nothing short of a political thunderclap, but democracy can't live or die in just one election cycle. Our lesson this year must not be that the threat from state legislatures has been reduced, so we can go back to ignoring them for another half century. Rather, we continue to tackle these urgent fights and treat them as the multi-cycle investments they are, optimized for power where it outlasts most—in state legislatures.
Vicky Hausman is the co-founder and co-CEO of Forward Majority. Daniel Squadron is a former New York state senator, and co-founder and executive director of The States Project.
The views expressed in this article are the authors' own.
