Hurricane Hilary Path, Spaghetti Models as Storm Builds

Hurricane Hilary is tracking up the West Coast, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects that Mexico's Baja California Peninsula will feel the strongest impacts from the storm by this weekend.

As a tropical storm, Hilary formed early on Wednesday and intensified into a hurricane by Thursday morning. The storm is classified as Category 1, with current wind speeds at 75 miles per hour, but further intensification is expected. Hilary's winds are expected to reach Category 4 strength—which the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale describes as "catastrophic" wind speeds ranging from 130 to 156 miles per hour—by Friday night before weakening to a Category 2 over the weekend when it hits Baja California.

A Category 2 hurricane has wind speeds of 96 to 110 miles per hour and is considered "extremely dangerous."

"Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes post-tropical," an NHC update said early Thursday morning.

The NHC has also said that it is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of wind impacts but that Baja California and the Southwestern U.S. should monitor the storm's progress.

Hilary's spaghetti models—computer models illustrating potential tropical cyclone paths—show the storm moving directly over Baja California before coming inland in Southern California.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty told Newsweek that the storm is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it reaches inland California.

No tropical storm has made landfall in California with hurricane-force winds in recorded history.

Heavy rainfall is expected to cause flash flooding and possible landslides in Baja California overnight Friday through late Sunday, according to the NHC. Rainfall impacts are forecast to peak on Sunday and Monday in the Southwestern United States and could be between 3 and 6 inches, with isolated amounts reaching 8 inches in parts of Baja California.

Douty said that desert areas like Palm Springs, California, could receive 12 times or more their usual August rain amounts.

Parts of Southern California, such as Los Angeles and San Diego, are used to high rain amounts, but typically the majority of the area's rain occurs in the winter, Douty added. Last winter, California was hit with a series of devastating rainstorms that saturated the state. The rain-heavy storms over the winter caused landslides and flooding, forcing thousands of families to evacuate.

The Mexican states of Baja California and Baja California Sur, from San Evaristo south, are under a tropical storm watch, according to the NHC.

"Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Hilary," the NHC said. "Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for a portion of this area later today."

The NHC also warned that large ocean swells could affect Baja California and other parts of Mexico. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," the report said.