Hurricane Ian's Path Shows 'Ominous' Warning for Florida

Hurricane Ian grows in strength near Grand Cayman, and meteorologists estimate the hurricane will hit the Tampa Bay area as soon as Wednesday. The latest forecast shows the storm is expected to slow when it hits Florida––a dangerous development likely to cause higher storm surges, more rain and an increased chance of floods.

If the storm slows or even potentially stalls, a Forbes report said it could be "ominous" for Florida. Many Floridians are already preparing for impact by evacuating, clearing out the shelves at grocery stores or prepping their homes.

A slowed storm means prolonged rains, flooding and possible tornados. There also is a higher fatality risk, as flooding is the most lethal hurricane-related event. The Weather Channel reported that half of U.S. deaths from tropical cyclones are due to storm surges. Drowning from excessive rainfall also was a high cause of death in tropical storm or hurricane-related events.

Hurricane Ian's Progression

Hurricane Ian upgraded from a tropical storm early Monday morning. Many weather experts are anticipating the hurricane to strengthen to a category 3 by Tuesday morning as it hits Cuba.

The hurricane will travel over Cuba's western side, and the Forbes meteorologist wrote that he doubts hitting land will weaken Hurricane Ian's force. Then, the storm could pass through the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and intensify further before it hits Florida and slows its progression. If forecasts are correct and Hurricane Ian does slow down, it will likely produce more rainfall, according to a report from The Weather Channel.

Estimated Surge Levels

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) posted a graphic that shows expected peak storm surges along Florida's west coast. Surge is expected to peak at 6 feet in Key West, and sea levels will continue to rise as the storm travels north along the western coast.

Rick Davis, a meteorologist with National Weather Service in Tampa Bay, said storm surges between 6 and 8 feet are expected in Tampa Bay. Some areas might see surges as high as 12 to 15 feet. Davis said the forecast predicts rainfall of 10 to 15 inches.

"The storm surge we are currently expecting is significant," Davis said. "The longer [the hurricane] stays off shore Tampa, the worse the conditions could be."

Davis said Hurricane Ian may weaken as it slows, but that doesn't lessen its impact. The slowed storm may create a "very large" wind field and increases the duration of storm surge flooding.

Who Should Evacuate?

Florida officials are acting days before the expected impact. A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the expected impact area along Florida's west coast Monday morning, and Hillsborough County officials announced a mandatory evacuation for all residents in Zone A. According to a tweet from one meteorologist local to Tampa, officials also suggested a voluntary evacuation for residents in Zone B.

You can view the Hillsborough Evacuation Zone printout in English and Spanish.

Zone A includes most waterfront property along the west side of the county, including near Tampa International Airport, Palma Ceia, South Tampa, MacDill Air Force Base, Davis and Harbour islands, and along the coast down to Gulf City.

Zone B runs just inland from A.

Hurricane Ian could be the first major hurricane the Tampa Bay area has seen in a century, according to the Forbes report, but Tampa Bay won't stop the hurricane's progression. Instead, it is likely Hurricane Ian will continue in its path and hit northern Florida at the beginning of this weekend. Parts of Georgia, including Atlanta, could see tropical storm conditions this weekend as well.